Tuesday 10 June, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Winning the Peace Through Adaptation: The Importance of Innovation and Partnerships in the 21st Century Warfare

Admiral Munsch, US Navy

Admiral Munsch, a former Rhodes Scholar (Hertford) and current commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa and NATO Joint Force Commander - Naples, will argue that achieving lasting peace in the 21st century demands a fundamental shift in how we wage war. This new approach must prioritize the deliberate building of peace as our core strategy, moving beyond simply winning battles. He will explain how a conveyor belt of innovation, supported by strong partnerships, are essential to securing our collective future in our changing world.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 3 June, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

When the dust settles: Lessons from a life in disaster

Lucy Easthope

Lucy Easthope is a leading authority on responding to and recovering from emergencies. For over two decades she has challenged others to think differently about what comes next after complex, tragic events. She is a passionate and thought-provoking voice in planning for pandemics, conflict, sudden death and disaster, and has been a tactical advisor to international emergency responders since 2001.

She is the author of The Recovery Myth and of the Sunday Times Bestseller ‘When The Dust Settles’. Her new book ‘Come What May’ was released in May 2025.

She has a special interest in the care and return of personal effects after disaster, writing and advising internationally on this subject. Her further research interests include the effectiveness of legislation in the field of emergency management, children and young people in disaster and the human aspects of risk management, insurance and business continuity processes. She is also regularly called upon to provide reflective debriefs and ‘lessons’ reports. 

Her research and practice portfolio includes the UK coronial process, mass fatalities planning, legal aspects of emergencies, identifying lessons post incident, the effectiveness of public inquiries, interoperability, and community resilience in practice. Lucy has developed contingency plans, training programmes and exercises with many organisations including government bodies, charities, airports and airlines, universities and emergency services. 

Lucy is a Visiting Professor at the Centre for Death and Society, University of Bath, UK. She is a former member of the UK Cabinet Office Behavioural Sciences Expert Group. She is a member of the International Counter Terror Preparedness Network Humanitarian Assistance Group. She also sits on the Disaster Working Group for the British Association of Social Work. She holds an LLB (Bristol), Masters in Risk, Crisis and Disaster management (Leicester) and PhD in Medicine (Lancaster).

www.whatevernext.info
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/22/lucy-easthope-profile-disaster-response

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 27 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

African Military Thought

Tycho van der Hoog, Neherlands Defence Academy & CCW

The African continent is marred by conflict. Although there is much attention to matters of war and peace in Africa, the underlying doctrines of African rebels and revolutionaries are usually overlooked. Rather than imposing Western theory on African developments, this presentation considers the contribution of African military thought to the changing global order. It does so by focusing on national liberation movements, which spearheaded the struggle for independence during the twentieth century. The resulting birth of new states and international organizations led to a transformation of warfare doctrines and geopolitical relations.

Dr Tycho van der Hoog is a researcher at the Netherlands Defence Academy. He completed a PhD at the African Studies Centre of Leiden University and conducted extensive research in African archives. He was the recipient of the BISA African Affairs Postgraduate Paper Prize and was elected as one of the ´Faces of Science´ by the Royal Netherlands Academy for Arts and Sciences. His book Comrades Beyond the Cold War: North Korea and the Liberation of Southern Africa was published by Hurst and Oxford University Press in 2025.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 20 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Hybrid Warfare

Johann Schmid, Bundeswehr & SST- CCW

Hybrid warfare in and around Ukraine has confronted Europe with a paradigm shift regarding security and defense since at least 2014. It began to dawn on Europe, that in an extreme case, existing military defense- and deterrence-postures might even be bypassed through hybrid strategies in a ‘downward or horizontal escalation mode’. This includes possible threats from within. With Russia's large-scale military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Ukraine war entered a new, militarily escalating but no less hybrid phase. European countries in support of Ukraine incrementally came under hybrid attack. The spectrum ranges from disinformation, influencing, cyber-attacks and espionage, via “weaponized migration” and ideological radicalization towards various forms of sabotage. It includes the conventional military component and even threats in the nuclear domain.

Hybrid warfare is not a new phenomenon. However, the empirical manifestations of hybrid warfare are always new and can be shaped in a particularly creative way: the horizontal extension of the battlefield, the use and combination of different domains and dimensions for the purpose of war, operating in the gray zones of interfaces as well as the unorthodox combination of different means, methods, tactics and strategies open up almost infinite combination possibilities. It can be expected that the future of conflict and war to a large degree will be determined by hybrid styles of warfare.

But what is hybrid warfare? How can hybrid warfare be conceptualized properly based on its’ nature? As countering hybrid warfare requires cooperation and coordination among manifold different actors, these are not only questions of theory, but of highest practical relevance. Without a common and comprehensive understanding of hybrid warfare among various relevant actors, common and comprehensive action in defense and response would be almost impossible.

Dr Johann Schmid is the project officer for the subject of Hybrid Warfare at the Bundeswehr Centre of Military History and Social Sciences (ZMSBw), Potsdam and lecturer at the Chair of Military History and Cultural History of Violence at theUniversity of Potsdam. Previously he was the Director COI Strategy & Defence at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) in Helsinki (FIN). He joined the Bundeswehr in 1989. His assignments within the mechanized infantry, latest as company commander, included deployment to Kosovo in 1999. In various positions he served within the German Federal Ministry of Defence, on the strategic command level within NATO as well as in the peace-, conflict- and security-related academia. 

He gained his PhD at the University of Cologne with a study on the dialectic relationship between offence and defence in Clausewitz’ classic ‘On War’. His research interests include Hybrid Warfare, Clausewitz, Theory and the Changing Manifestation of War, Strategy and Security Policy.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 6 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Beyond Black Hawk Down: Intervention, Nation-Building, and Insurgency in Somalia, 1992-1995

Jonathan Carroll, Sandhurst

The story of Black Hawk Down is a familiar one. On 3 October 1993 two Black Hawk helicopters were shot down, and in the ensuing Battle of Mogadishu eighteen Americans and hundreds of Somalis were killed. But very few appreciate that this was just one day in a two-and-a-half-year operation; the most ambitious attempt in history to rebuild a nation. The United States sought to show the world that the UN could rebuild a country, but in a dire foreshadowing of the failed efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan a decade later, the intervention in Somalia was plagued with political infighting, policy mismatch, confusion, and fatal assumptions.

In 1992 Somalia saw the largest ever deployment of American troops to the continent of Africa, and 1993 brought the first UN-led peace enforcement mission and the most ambitious experiment in nation-building. In his book Beyond Black Hawk Down, Jonathan Carroll provides the first scholarly military history of the entire intervention, from its early and largely successful humanitarian phase in 1992 through to the ultimate withdrawal of UN forces in 1995. Carroll dispels the myths and misunderstandings surrounding one of the most infamous episodes of the 1990s to present a new interpretation of events, most notably by including the Somali perspective, to argue what went so wrong in Somalia, and more importantly, why.

Understanding the intervention in Somalia, its successes and the roots of its failures, is invaluable to contemporary debates on concepts of nation-building and counterinsurgency. Moreover, the increasing regularity of inter-state and intra-state conflicts across the world means the international community will continue to be called upon to intervene in other failed or failing states in the future. Beyond Black Hawk Down is an important new history that will inform the shape and nature of future military interventions.

Jonathan Carroll is a former officer in the Irish Defence Forces who earned a PhD from Texas A&M University. He is an associate professor of military history at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 29 April, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Expanding the European Defense Technological Industrial Base for Deterrence

Matthew Boyce, US Navy and SST- CCW

How does Europe plan to defend itself amidst constrained resources and geopolitical uncertainty?  This presentation explores the fundamental role of the European Defense Technological Industrial Base (EDTIB) in providing materiel for a sustainable and credible deterrent, analyzing its status and challenges, assessing initiatives in progress, and providing potential options for policymakers.

Commander Boyce is the 2024-2025 US Navy Hudson Fellow at St Antony’s College and a visiting research fellow at SST-CCW. He graduated from the United States Naval Academy where he earned a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering. He holds a Master of Arts in Defense and Strategic Studies from the US Naval War College and a Master of Arts in International Relations from the University of Belgrade.

Commander Boyce’s operational sea duty includes assignment as a naval aviator to multiple helicopter sea combat squadrons and most recently as the first commanding officer of Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron FOUR ZERO (VRM-40), the US Navy’s East Coast CMV-22B Tiltrotor squadron, based in Norfolk, Virginia. His shore assignments include Flag Aide to the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Warfare Systems (OPNAV N9) and 2019 Olmsted Scholar at the University of Belgrade Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade, Serbia.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 11 March, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Virtually inconceivable? The relationship between geopolitics, cyber capacity building, and sovereigntist claims in cyberspace and the digital domain

Julia Carver, Oxford University

Abstract to be posted shortly

Julia Carver is a DPhil Candidate in International Relations at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College. Her research explores the interplay between geopolitical strategic thought, sovereignty, and the development of cybersecurity policy by the European Union. Currently, Julia is a Special (Stipendiary) Lecturer in Politics for Magdalen College, a European Cyber Security Fellow at Virtual Routes, and a Research Associate with Oxford's Department of Computer Science. In 2021, she founded the Cyber Strategy and Information Operations research group affiliated with Oxford's Changing Character of War Centre and Nuffield College, and she remains a Research Fellow at CCW. Throughout her time at Oxford, Julia has collaborated with governments on matters of cybersecurity, defence and strategy, including fieldwork on governmental responses to large-scale ransomware attacks.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 4 March, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

The Impact of AI & Emerging Technologies on Future Defence Strategy

Dr Robert Hercock

The arrival of Generative AI has transformed all domains of business and is becoming an integral part of society. In this presentation we examine the potential impact in the Defence sector of AI, and in parallel the emerging technologies that are likely to accelerate the process. Specifically, the potential contribution of Quantum Computing and alternative computing paradigms. How will this rapidly evolving field shape the future of geopolitics and combat operations?

Dr Robert Hercock is a Chief Research Scientist in the British Telecommunications Security Research Practice. He has over twenty-five years’ experience in leading Cyber Security and AI research projects in the UK. His research interests include Cyber Security, A.I., Robotics and Complex Adaptive Systems. He was a member of the Royal Society Science and Industry Committee and is a regular adviser to the Royal Society on AI and Data Science issues.

He has chaired an international workshop on adaptive cyber defence and has over thirty international publications in AI and security concepts, in addition to over 150 filed patents.

Professionally he is a Chartered Engineer and Fellow of the IET. He is a Visiting Fellow at the Changing Character of Warfare Centre, in Pembroke College, Oxford University. He has also served for several years as an independent technical expert for the UK MoD Defence Science Expert Committee (DSEC) and was a Business Research Fellow at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 25 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

China's Private Security Sector at a Crossroads: From Pakistan to Myanmar.

Alessandro Arduino, Kings College London

Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has increasingly relied on private security firms to safeguard its investments and personnel abroad, addressing gaps in its limited power projection capabilities. Unlike Russia’s quasi-PMCs, which engage in militarized covert operations, Chinese private security companies (PSCs) operate with a narrower focus, protecting BRI-related projects without directly deploying the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Rising anti-Chinese violence in Pakistan and instability in Myanmar have intensified Beijing’s reliance on PSCs, pushing for enhanced professionalism. However, the Wagner Group’s failed mutiny in Russia serves as a cautionary tale for Beijing about the potential dangers of empowering private security entities. Balancing security needs with controlled oversight, China’s PSCs remain a critical component of its global strategy, reflecting a measured and cautious approach distinct from Moscow’s aggressive "Kalashnikov Diplomacy."

Alessandro Arduino PhD is an affiliate lecturer at Lau China Institute, King’s College London, a visiting professor at Geneva Graduate Institute and a member of the Advisory Group of the International Code of Conduct Associations for private security companies. Previously he served as a China expert for the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the Italian Consulate General in Shanghai, co-director of the Security and Crisis Management International Center at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS), and a principal research fellow at the Middle East Institute – National University of Singapore (NUS).

His latest book Money for Mayhem: Mercenaries, Private Military Companies, Drones, and the Future of War (Rowman & Littlefield, 2023), forecasts what the future of war looks like in a world dominated by private armies. His reputation as a Belt and Road Initiative security expert has led him to work with international organisations including NATO, OSCE, EBRD, UNDP and the Italian Army. Dr Arduino has been appointed a Knight of the Order of the Italian Star by the President of the Italian Republic.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 18 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

AI in strategic decision-making

Kenneth Payne, Kings College London

Can AI make strategic choices, and do they look anything like human ones? Here, we outline our ongoing research into machine decision-making in military scenarios. Using dynamic crisis simulations, we are exploring aspects of strategic theory - including deterrence, compellence and escalation. Early findings point to a distinctive 'machine psychology' that is in some respects similar to humans - with biases and heuristics; but in others very different. 

Kenneth Payne is Professor of Strategy at King’s College London, where he researches the role of Artificial Intelligence in national security. He’s the author of four books on strategy, most recently I Warbot: The Dawn of Artificially Intelligent Conflict. This book looked ahead to the battlefield of the near future and considered the prospects for creative artificial strategists. I Warbot was named a book of the year by The Economist newspaper and the leading academic journal, International Affairs.

 Professor Payne is a Commissioner of the Global Commission for Responsible AI in the Military Domain. He currently serves as Specialist Advisor to the UK Parliament’s Defence Committee for its work on AI. He contributed to the US National Security Commission on AI, and has been invited to consult with the UN Secretary General’s high-level advisory body on AI.

This talk will be supported by Leo Keay, a PhD Student in War Studies at KCL and Baptiste Alloui-Cros, a DPhil student in DPIR, Oxford.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 11 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

The development of sea power thought in the early to mid Cold War

Andrew Livsey, Kings College London

The sea is the great global commons and, as Colin Gray pointed out, “Great sea powers or maritime coalitions have either won, or occasionally drawn, every major war in modern history.” But ideas on how to use sea power have not been static. Mahan and Corbett are the names that trip off the tongue, but it was in the Cold War that the ideas we have today were largely formed. This seminar will give a case study of how a set of ideas developed, it will explain a hitherto largely ignored part of Cold War history, and it will suggest how to effectively develop sea power thought in the future.

Andrew Livsey is a retired Royal Navy warfare officer, currently completing a PhD at Kings College London while working for the Navy’s Strategic Studies Centre. In 2017 he won the Sir Michael Howard prize for coming top of the MA on Advanced Staff Course and in 2021-2 he held the Hudson Fellowship with CCW. He has been published in War in History, RUSI Journal, Mariner’s Mirror and The Naval Review.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 4 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

A New Axis of Upheaval?  North Korea, Russia, China, and others—why we should care

Edward Howell, University of Oxford

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has catalysed a renewed partnership between Moscow and its Cold War client of Pyongyang.  The two states have not only signed a mutual defence pact, but in addition to sending artillery and missiles to Russia, North Korea has also deployed over 11,000 troops to aid Putin’s war.  At the same time, China has remained obstinate in its reluctance to comment on the burgeoning North Korea-Russia ties, despite continuing to exchange dual-use technologies with Russia.  Is the revived DPRK-Russia rapprochement purely a transactional “marriage of convenience”? Alternatively, does it represent a longer-term strategy to form a new “axis of upheaval” between Russia, North Korea, China, and other rogue states, such as Iran?  In shedding light upon these questions, this talk will aim to disaggregate the evolution of North Korea’s relationship with Russia, and analyse the implications of North Korea’s role in the Ukraine War on East Asian and global security, at a time of political change in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo.

Dr Edward Howell is a Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Oxford, and the Korea Foundation Fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), London. His research specialises in the international relations and security of the Korean Peninsula and East Asia, with his most recent research concerning North Korea’s foreign policy, inter-Korean relations, U.S.-DPRK relations, and UK policy towards the Indo-Pacific.  Edward’s latest book, North Korea and the Global Nuclear Order: When Bad Behaviour Pays was published by Oxford University Press in 2023.   Edward is a frequent media commentator and contributor to outlets including The Spectator, The Telegraph, and BBC News.  He received a prizewinning B.A., M.Phil., and D.Phil. in International Relations from the University of Oxford. 

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 28 January, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Artificial Intelligence: Recent developments and the implications for defence and security

Al Brown

Al Brown is Director of Neurosymbolic Artificial Intelligence at the Centre for Cognitive and Advanced Technologies, Fujitsu.

Al is a former Research Fellow at Oxford University, researching perception, information integration, and optimisation for competitive advantage in biological and computational systems. He was previously the lead for UK Ministry of Defence on the study of global strategic trends in robotics and artificial intelligence, and its impacts on conflict. The veteran of numerous experimental exercises, testing remote and autonomous systems and A.I. tools for conflict, Al authored Defence’s short book on Human Machine Teaming.

He writes and has lectured on related subjects at the Alan Turing Institute, Oxford University, UCL, Cranfield University, and other military and academic institutions. He has also been one of a group of government experts on lethal systems and autonomy, providing advice to and speaking at the United Nations.

Al is also a former Army officer. In addition to other operational tours in Afghanistan and the Balkans, he commanded an explosive ordinance disposal and high-risk search regiment and led the counter-IED squadron in Afghanistan.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 21 January, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Under the Radar: NATO Staff in the Strategy Formation Process

Leanne Iorio, Oxford University

As NATO’s membership and mission have evolved over the past 75 years, so too has the complexity of the organization as well as the need for clear and effective strategy. While attention often focuses on the more powerful nations of the Alliance, this talk will examine the important but often underappreciated role that NATO political and military staff play in the strategy formation process. In exploring the evolution of NATO strategy and structure from its founding to the present, the talk will highlight the first-ever public strategy -- the 1991 Strategic Concept -- and the NATO staff who helped shape this pivotal moment in Alliance history. As we find ourselves in a period of heightened conflict in the European theatre, more uncertainty regarding the future of American involvement in NATO, and increasingly complex security environments, understanding NATO strategy formation and its implications for the future becomes even more urgent and important.

Leanne Iorio is a current DPhil candidate at the University of Oxford. Her doctoral research examines how NATO and its constituent members plan and implement strategy in complex environments, specifically focusing on NATO’s 1991 Strategic Concept and the underappreciated role that NATO institutional actors played in its formation and the process of adoption. Prior to beginning her doctoral research, Leanne earned a MA in International Relations from the University of St Andrews and a MA in International Security from Sciences Po Paris. Leanne has also undertaken work with the RAND Corporation, where she primarily focused on wargaming Baltic defense and deterrence, and better understanding the contributions of key European NATO Allies.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 3 December, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

An exploration of the existential threat posed by commercial first person view (FPV) UAVs, modified by asymmetrical warfare actors

Chris Lavers

We consider the threat posed by Commercially-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) civilian UAV platforms, modified for hostile non-state actor use in civilian, and urban warfare environments. Potential aggressors possess small-scale conflict ‘skills’ gained in Syria and Iraq by various Islamist groups, including Al Qaeda and ISIS, with ‘gamer’ first person view technology, alongside innovations markedly increased during COVID, with modified UAVs operated in various novel ways. Technology has blurred the distinction between civilian modified UAV and military drone operators so that clearly demarked war-fighting battlefronts are harder to define, nor combatants distinguishable from civilians. Non-state aggressors with UAV platforms, may now hide effectively amongst civilians, the urban guerrillas’ domain.

The last decade saw the dawn of asymmetric warfare by non-state actors incorporating small, cheap, hand-launched drones, often indigenously manufactured, using simple materials with low radar cross-section (RCS), visible, and thermal signatures. Modification of COTS UAVs by hostile actors for nefarious activities, pose an existential threat, with terrorist operations against critical infrastructure, or IED deployment in conventional urban operations possible at any time. Understanding of this emerging threat is needed, from design to operation, to develop effective countermeasures. 

We look at the evolving UtD pathway, UK vulnerability, counter-drone effectiveness, policy and practice. In the hands of urban guerrillas or overseas trained terrorists, UtD unconventional methods allow targeting of political goals, civilian attacks, government disruption, or assassination. Urban terrorists may employ drones to systematically inflict damage to authorities, to wear down, or demoralise, sustaining operations and tactics without defending recognised operations bases, preventing conventional forces ‘squaring-off’ against them, in confrontations they would likely lose. Drones provide tactical advantages, with surprise, acting in swarms at speed, often hard for ground forces to match. Addressing emerging hostile actor threats, with resources currently allocated to the UK Armed Forces, including UtD operation, will be challenging. This discussion is supported by ‘anonymous’ conversations with key military and civilian users.

Chris Lavers is a Visiting Research Fellow at SST-CCW. He is a University of Lincoln Senior Engineering Lecturer at Britannia Royal Naval College, Dartmouth, and has taught maritime littoral and amphibious sensing topics, and space-based earth observation at Britannia since 1993. He is Subject Matter Expert (Radar and Telecommunications) and International DipHE Programme Manager, with interest in the pedagogy of teaching engineering and physics in Higher Education military establishments, and student staff mentoring.

Chris has a Physics degree, and Doctorate, in liquid crystal optical display time at the Royal Signals and Radar Establishment Malvern with the SP3 liquid crystal team. He then undertook a post-doctoral position in Biosensors at Southampton University, pioneering development of advanced optical sensors for antibody detection, future medical sensors, and biochemical environmental applications working with the Public Health Laboratory Service Porton Down, and Liverpool University. Chris' current research interests focus on military technologies transfer into civilian applications including counter drone technology, autonomous platform optical stealth, optical and waveguide microwave sensing, and analysis of high resolution satellite imagery for UAV humanitarian crises and armed conflicts.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 26 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Drones in Ukraine and beyond – A revolution in warfare?

Ulrike Franke

Drones have become the iconic weapon of the war in Ukraine. They are being used on both sides, in numbers that were previously inconceivable. The role played by civilian systems is particularly noteworthy. But should we expect future wars to look like the war in Ukraine, or are we witnessing “peak drone”?  

In this talk, Dr. Franke discusses how drones are being used by Ukraine and Russia, the role they are playing and the extent to which they are changing warfare. How is the technology evolving, and what lessons should Western nations draw from this?

Dr. Ulrike Franke is a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in Paris. Her areas of focus include German and European security and defence, the future of warfare, and the impact of new technologies such as drones and artificial intelligence on geopolitics and warfare. Franke has published widely on these and other topics, and regularly appears as commentator in the media. She co-hosts Sicherheitshalber, a German-language podcast on security and defence, as well as Le casque et la plume, a French podcast on geopolitics. She holds a DPhil in international relations from the University of Oxford, in her thesis she studied the use of drones by Western armed forces. She also holds a BA from Sciences Po Paris and a double summa cum laude MA from Sciences Po Paris and the University of St. Gallen. She teaches at Sciences Po Paris.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 25 November, 15.00
Eccles Room, Pembroke College

From COVID to force design – are strategic leadership skills the answer?

Brigadier Joe Fossey, British Army

Crises demand agility and immediate action often in high-energy situations. Strategic leadership must bridge both the present and the future, particularly in positioning ourselves in the world and the posture we adopt. In this talk Brigadier Joe Fossey will reflect on his experience, exploring lessons designed to help chart a path through unpredictable times.

Brigadier Joe Fossey was born in 1975. He read chemistry at Leicester University before commissioning into the Royal Engineers in 1998. He has served around the world and his staff experience includes an assignment in the Pentagon and attachment to the UK National Security Secretariat. From 2019-2021 he commanded 8 Engineer Brigade and is currently a student at the Royal College of Defence Studies after three years working on future force design in the Ministry of Defence. His next role in 2025 is as the Army’s new Recruiting Director. Brigadier Fossey is married, has two children and enjoys a wide range of hobbies, sport and music.

All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 19 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Integrated Deterrence

Nicholas Taylor

We apologise that this seminar is cancelled . We will aim to reschedule another time for Nicholas’ presentation.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 12 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Implementing AI systems in Government

Julian von Nehammer, LILT

Jules will speak about his experience implementing AI systems in Government. He will focus on a recent case study – LILT’s generative AI platform which can translate a large amount of content rapidly. When a European law enforcement agency needed a dynamic solution to translate high volumes of content in low-resource languages within tight time constraints, they turned to LILT. LILT’s generative AI platform, powered by large language models, enabled faster translation of time-sensitive information at scale by leveraging NVIDIA GPUs and NVIDIA NeMo, an end-to-end enterprise framework for building, customizing, and deploying generative AI models. Further information: www.nvidia.com/en-gb/case-studies/lilt

Jules leads LILT’s government business in EMEA and Australia. Prior to joining LILT, he was an early partner in a venture fund focussed on dual-use technology. Formerly he was a specialised British Army Officer, deployed in the Middle East and Africa, and published papers on grey zone and asymmetric warfare in multiple Defence journals . He received a first class BA in Music and Russian language and has published papers on technology for musicology. He spends his spare time with his wife, reading, making music, and writing.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 5 November, 13.30
ONLINE: MICROSOFT TEAMS

Israel’s flawed strategy in the war in Gaza

Dr Ehud Eilam

Hamas surprised Israel by launching a large-scale attack on October 7, 2023. Israel, after losing more than 1,100 people in one day, responded with a massive offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israel inflicted a major blow to Hamas but did not manage to destroy this group. The cost of the war, to the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip, has been enormous. Israel also has been paying heavily in blood and treasure. Overall, Israel carried out its offensive based on a half-baked strategy, neglecting key military, political, and economic factors. Israel avoided alternatives, including a more defensive strategy. Israel’s flawed strategy in the war in Gaza has serious implications on other fronts as well, mainly the attrition war between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel might also conduct preemptive actions, such as against Iran’s nuclear sites.

Dr Ehud Eilam has been dealing and studying Israel’s national security in the last 35 years. He served in the Israeli military and later worked as a researcher for the Israeli Ministry of Defense. He has a Ph.D. in his field, and he has published nine books in the U.S / U.K . His latest book is: Israel’s new wars - The conflicts between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah and the Palestinians since the 1990s (Peter Lang, 2024). He can be reached at Ehudmh2014@gmail.com

Tuesday 29 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Dams, Canals, and Elephants in the Room: Threats of Water Conflict in Central Asia

Sophie Ibbotson

Central Asia is severely affected by climate change and water stress, a situation which is exacerbated by authoritarianism and lack of investment. Computerised modelling of water conflict risks can help identify potential flashpoints for intra- and international conflict, but is limited by a paucity of good quality data and by machines' inability to adequately assess qualitative factors affecting countries with weak governance and management systems. Decision-makers’ unwillingness to actively engage with and mitigate known threats is also of significant concern, as prolonged inaction reduces the likelihood that conflict can be averted. In this context, Ibbotson will discuss three case studies which may present future challenges to local, national and regional stability: the location of headwaters in the Wakhan Corridor; the construction of the Kosh Tepe Canal; and drought in Karakalpakstan.

Sophie Ibbotson is the Chairman of the Royal Society for Asian Affairs. She works primarily as a consultant to the World Bank and national governments, with a focus on economic development and water security in emerging markets and fragile states. As a 2023/24 Visiting Fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre, Sophie examined the forecasting and mitigation of water conflicts in Afghanistan and Central Asia; and she is currently writing the first biography of the Amu Darya (River Oxus), from its source in Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor to the ill-fated Aral Sea.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 22 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Strategic defense review

Dr Rob Johnson

Why is the UK having another defence review? Following the comprehensive Integrated Review (2021) and its IR Refresh (2023), the Defence Command Paper (2021) and the Defence Command Paper Refresh (2023), this new Strategic Defence Review will represent the fifth such analysis and projection of policy in just four years. This does not include the spending reviews or capability reviews which have occurred alongside sometimes concurrently with these strategic evaluations. What is its rationale? Will the UK repeat the mistakes of some previous reviews? What is the current state of the UK's defence and what should it be doing to achieve its national strategic objectives,  and its 'means'? How, exactly, should governments design their national strategy, defence policy, and alliance integration? 

Recently returned from two years of secondment to the UK government as the Director of the Office of Net Assessment, Dr Johnson will outline how national strategies are made and how we may need to revise our theory. 

 Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of SST-CCW. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian Defence University Staff College and Adjunct Professor of Strategic Studies at Rennes School of Business in France. He is a historian, strategic studies and International Relations scholar combining academic analyses with ‘knowledge exchange’ policy impact.

Dr Johnson was the first Director of the UK Office of Net Assessment and Challenge, working closely with the Secretary of State for Defence, Ministers, and Cabinet Office. He continues to advise and delivers direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters. His bespoke advisory support is not limited to the United Kingdom, but is requested by governments and armed forces in the United States, Europe, and Australia. He is prominent within professional military education, as a member of the advisory panel of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, lecturer for the Royal College of Defence Studies, and as the director of ‘insight and understanding’ study days and workshops. His former military career involved innovations in counter-terrorism, counterinsurgency, and a clear understanding of the requirements and thinking of the armed services. He is specialist in military strategy, operations, military conceptual developments, and strategic decision making. 

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 15 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

"Slow Slicing"  - How China's asymmetric tactics build the Great Rejuvenation 

Dr Sari Arho Harvén

"China Dream", "Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" or "Community with shared future for mankind" are not just Communist Party jargon, but integral elements of China's Grand Plan to establish a global order (global governance) that ensures the safety of the Communist Party regime in the future. This plan, often overlooked in the West, is a long-term strategy that aims to impact not only global security architectures but also the very fundamentals of democratic societies. 

This seminar presentation will examine what Beijing wants and specifically the asymmetric methods it employs to achieve "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049". In the context of China's foreign policy, this encompasses unconventional warfare, hybrid operations, and other forms of influence. The significance of the China-Russia relationship, also underestimated due to historical reasons, will also be discussed as it plays a crucial part in Xi Jinping's strategy. 

Dr Sari Arho Havrén, Counsellor and a Senior Advisor at Business Finland, under the Embassy of Finland in Belgium, leads the Team Finland foresight and strategy work in Europe, with previous positions in China and Asia Pacific. Sari is a visiting researcher at the University of Helsinki (China Cold War). She is also a former European China Policy Fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and an adjunct professor (Great Power competition and China) at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.

Sari’s special expertise include: China's international relations especially with the EU nations and the US; Geopolitical analysis; foresight process creation and facilitation; foresight research, analysis and insight; sense making of the future signals and trends; China’s operational environment; and future scenarios; platform and ecosystem development; network leadership; management across multicultural environments. She is a certified futurist, Asia Pacific senior analyst in government and commercial demand and a popular speaker on geopolitics, international relations and future phenomena, as well as on Asian operative landscapes.

Sari obtained her PhD in international relations from the University of Helsinki.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 4 June, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Rare Earths, Meteorites and Magnets

Prof. Lindsay Greer, Cambridge

Rare-earth elements are not necessarily rare, but are found only in low-concentration deposits and are difficult to extract. They are used (at low concentrations) in many technologies: flat-panel displays, LED lights, camera lenses, catalytic converters, disc-drives, batteries, and many more. Now, the largest use is in permanent magnets, which are used in electric motors and generators. With the aim towards ‘zero carbon’ and electrification, manifest in the proliferation of electric cars and wind turbines, the demand for permanent magnets has soared. With up to 95% of all rare earths coming from China, there is strategic concern about security of supply: rare earths top the ‘critical materials’ list. It has been of great interest, therefore, that some meteorites (composed mainly of iron and nickel, and, importantly, devoid of rare earths) have regions within them with excellent magnetic properties, even rivalling those of man-made magnets containing rare earths. These regions even act as magnetic recorders of conditions in the early Universe. But meteorites cannot meet the demand for magnets. This talk is largely about the decades-long struggle to replicate the desirable structures in meteorites — a tale of occasional glimpses of success, of dashed hopes, and of ongoing efforts. And I will mention how I got into research in this area, while looking for something totally different!

Lindsay Greer earned MA and PhD degrees at Cambridge, then undertook postdoctoral work and was Assistant Professor of Applied Physics at Harvard University before returning to a faculty position in Cambridge.  He has held visiting positions at the Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble and the Centre d'Études Nucléaires de Grenoble, and was Harrison Distinguished Visiting Professor, Department of Physics and Centre for Materials Innovation, Washington University.  He holds an Advisory Professorship at Chongqing University.  He is an editor of Philosophical Magazine (founded in 1798, publishing papers on the structure and properties of condensed matter).  He has been awarded the Pilkington Teaching Prize of the University of Cambridge, the Light Metals and Cast Shop Technology Awards of TMS (USA), the Cook-Ablett Award, the Hume Rothery Prize and the Griffith Medal of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining, the ISMANAM Senior Scientist Medal, the Honda Kotaro Memorial Medal of Tohoku University, and the Lee Hsun Lecture Award of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.  He has published two books, more than 10 book chapters and more than 350 scientific papers.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 28 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Inter-alliance Security Dilemmas: Korean Counterforce Systems and Their Effect on the Sino- American Nuclear Competition

Sam Seitz, University of Oxford

Cold War strategic competition was dominated by the actions of the US and USSR. Their material preponderance, coupled with tightly integrated multilateral alliances systems in Europe, oriented competition around this central axis of competition. But the current environment is less centralized, characterized by cross-cutting alliances and interacting nuclear dyads. How has this changed the nature of nuclear competition? We assess this question by considering the inter-Korean competition and its effects outside the peninsula. In response to North Korea’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, Seoul has procured stealth aircraft and precision, long-range missiles. It has also authorized the deployment of US missile defense systems to its territory, pursued greater nuclear coordination with Washington, and even threatened nuclear acquisition itself. These moves are aimed at Pyongyang, but they have spillover effects on China. Exploiting new Chinese language military documents, we show that South Korea’s increasingly sophisticated arsenal of counterforce systems is contributing to Beijing’s anxiety about the survivability of its nuclear arsenal, helping to spur China’s nuclear arsenal expansion. This has important implications both for the academic literature on alliances and arms racing as well as for policy debates surrounding Sino-American nuclear competition. In particular, it suggests that alliances might not just entrap patrons in wars but also in arms races. This creates a type of inter-alliance security dilemma, where security spirals in one state dyad produce security spirals in separate state dyads. Further, it reveals that contemporary strategic competition in East Asia systematically differs from the Cold War due to the existence of multiple cross-cutting alliances. This complicates signaling efforts, and, by increasing the number of relevant actors, augurs deep challenges for any efforts at bilateral nuclear arms control between the US and China.

 Samuel Seitz is an incoming Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program and DPhil Candidate in International Relations at The University of Oxford. His research interests include status-seeking in international relations, nuclear strategy, military procurement policy, alliance politics, and the ways in which they intersect. His work has been published in Contemporary Security Policy, The Washington Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, and The US-China Perception Monitor. Sam has also worked as a Summer Associate and Adjunct Researcher at the RAND Corporation. He received an M.A. in Security Studies and a B.S.F.S. in International Politics from Georgetown University.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 21 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Spy and Tell: Why are governments publicly sharing more intelligence secrets than ever before?

Professor David V. Gioe, Kings College London
Thomas Maguire, Leiden University

Professor David Gioe is Visiting Professor of Intelligence and International Security in the KCL Department of War Studies. He joins the department as a British Academy Global Professor. He is Associate Professor of History at the US Military Academy at West Point, where he also serves as History Fellow for the Army Cyber Institute. David is also Director of Studies for the Cambridge Security Initiative and co-convener of its International Security and Intelligence program. Professor Gioe is an internationally recognised academic scholar of intelligence and a veteran professional practitioner of the craft. He is experienced in civilian, military, corporate and law enforcement intelligence with expertise in intelligence analysis and overseas operations. After over a decade of public service as an intelligence officer, he became a leading intellectual with several conference presentations, media engagements and publications on intelligence and national security issues. He holds advanced degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Cambridge. His scholarship and analysis has appeared in numerous outlets.

Dr Thomas Maguire is an Assistant Professor of Intelligence and Security in the Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, and Visiting Fellow with the King’s Centre for the Study of Intelligence in the Department of War Studies, King’s College London (KCL). Tom's research streams are two-fold. Firstly, he is interested in interactions between intelligence and propaganda in international politics, especially examining covert influence and intelligence disclosures as policy tools. This forms the basis for a forthcoming book with Oxford University Press, The intelligence-propaganda nexus: British and American covert action in Cold War Southeast Asia. It is also the thematic focus for a Dutch Government-funded research project, ‘Sharing Secrets’, for which Tom is the Principal Investigator. This examines state decision-making behind disclosing intelligence to influence external audiences. Secondly, Tom is interested in the politics and impacts of international security cooperation, in particular exploring post-colonial security relationships between states in Africa and Asia and the United Kingdom during the Cold War and so-called Global War on Terror.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 14 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Open-Source Intelligence: what is it for, where did it come from and what is standing in its way?

Matthew Lawrence, Centre for Information Resilience 

Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is everywhere right now.   From the blue tick ‘journalists’ on the remnants of Twitter to boardrooms and the world’s battlefields.  Yet if the observer grabs any two OSINT examples or indeed any two OSINT practitioners, it is likely that they will get completely different answers to all of the questions in this seminar’s title.  Moreover, if that same observer felt inclined to dive into academic definitions from either Intelligence Studies or Journalism, they would find themselves confused about how what they’ve seen relates to what they’re reading in any way. This session seeks to explain that dissonance by exploring where the various streams of OSINT came from, what common goods/challenges exist, and what that means for OSINT’s evolving role(s). 

Matt Lawrence is a career intelligence professional.  He spent ten years using OSINT techniques in traditional settings in the British Army, he spent a further three years building corporate capabilities around them, and he now works at the Centre for Information Resilience where he attempts to combine his studied professional and academic view of intelligence with the power of the OSINT community for the purpose of human rights accountability. Matt stays connected to the technology driven side of private sector intelligence through consultancy work for both multi-national and start-up tech companies, building tradecraft and translating intelligence use cases.

As an occasional academic, Matt holds a BSc and an MA in Intelligence and International Relations and is currently working toward a PhD on the subject of OSINT’s evolving role in the world.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 7 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

The Shifting Global Terrorism and Extremism Landscape: A View from Southeast Asia

Prof. Kumar Ramakrishna, RSIS Singapore

This talk provides an analysis of shifting global terrorism and extremism trends from a Southeast Asian and more specifically Singaporean vantage point. It sketches out the ideological and physical dimensions of the threat in Southeast Asia, explores an emergent far right ideological strain in a region long dominated by an Islamist extremist one - and reinforces the need for a holistic, multisectoral response to the threat, incorporating calibrated military/law enforcement responses as part of an “indirect” strategic counter-terrorism effort.

Kumar Ramakrishna is Professor of National Security Studies, Provost’s Chair in National Security Studies, Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), as well as Research Adviser to the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, at RSIS. Prior to his current appointments, he was Head, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (2020-2022), Head, Centre of Excellence for National Security (2006-2015) and Head, National Security Studies Programme (2016 to 2020). He was also Associate Dean for Policy Studies (2020 to 2022).

A historian by background, Professor Ramakrishna has been a frequent speaker on counter-terrorism before local and international audiences, a regular media commentator on counter-terrorism, and an established author in numerous internationally refereed journals. His first book, Emergency Propaganda: The Winning of Malayan Hearts and Minds 1948-1958 (2002) was described by the International History Review as “required reading for historians of Malaya, and for those whose task is to counter insurgents, guerrillas, and terrorists”. His second major book, Radical Pathways: Understanding Muslim Radicalisation in Indonesia (2009) was featured as one of the top 150 books on terrorism and counterterrorism in the respected journal Perspectives on Terrorism, which identified Professor Ramakrishna as “one of Southeast Asia’s leading counterterrorism experts”. His recent research has focused on understanding, preventing and countering violent extremism in Southeast Asia. His latest book is Extremist Islam: Recognition and Response in Southeast Asia (New York: Oxford University Press, 2022).

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 30 April, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

“Out of the Blue”: The mirroring fallacy and the navies of today

Lt Cdr Andrew Ward, CCW & Royal Navy

In the 1960s, the Soviet Navy was quietly recapitalising and expanding. As détente collapsed in the late 1970s, western analysts panicked as the Soviet Fleet patrolled the world ocean, supported socialist revolutions around the world and established naval bases astride vital maritime chokepoints such as the Bab-al-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. But the signs had been there all along. Under the visionary leadership of Admiral of the Soviet Union Sergei Gorshkov, the USSR had hankered after sea power for a generation. Gorshkov’s conception of fleet composition was dismissed in the West because it did not mirror the blue water battle fleets that had won the Second World War for the Allies. As the Cold War climaxed in the 1980s, the US Navy reacted to this new Soviet Fleet with a massive expansion in ships and an aggressive forward Maritime Strategy. The world ocean of 2024 is still patrolled by the results of that endeavour, ready for the next naval challenger – the People’s Liberation Army Navy. This talk will build on archival research on Admiralty Records throughout the Cold War and follows Andrew’s first paper published in the Journal of Intelligence History in 2022. 

Andrew Ward is the 2023-24 Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Fellow at CCW. Andrew joined the Royal Navy in 2012, serving at sea in destroyers HMS DRAGON and DUNCAN in the Middle East. Recently he has been working in international policy at the Ministry of Defence and Northwood Headquarters. He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at University College, was a visiting student at Washington & Lee University and completed an MA in Defence and Security Studies (Maritime) at King’s College London in 2021. His paper on the Royal Navy and the Early Cold War was published in January 2022.

Seminars at 13.30, Wharton Room, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 23 April, 13.30
Hovenden Room, All Souls

Please note room change for Week 1

Some new insights into the psychology of individuals and large groups in a world of changing conflicts

Lord John Alderdice, CCW

The use of overwhelming force no longer guarantees victory in war.  Under what conditions do supposedly weaker conflict actors ‘outpower’ stronger actors?  Lord Alderdice will argue that those most willing to sustain extreme conflict have been ‘devoted actors’ driven by non-negotiable ‘sacred values’.  Bringing into dialogue insights from large group psychology, neuroscience, and epigenetics with those of political science, he will describe two factors one biological, and the other from complex large group psychology, that can help explain these apparently non-rational phenomena.

John, Lord Alderdice has an academic and professional background in medicine, psychiatry, and psychoanalysis. He was a consultant psychiatrist and Senior Lecturer at The Queen’s University of Belfast where he established the Centre for Psychotherapy with various degree courses, research work and clinical services. He also devoted himself to understanding and addressing religious fundamentalism and long-standing violent political conflict, initially in Ireland, and then in various other parts of the world. This commitment took him into politics, and he was elected Leader of Northern Ireland’s Alliance Party from 1987 to 1998, playing a significant role in the negotiation of the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. When the new Northern Ireland Assembly was elected, he became its first Speaker. In 2004 he retired from the Assembly on being appointed by the British and Irish Governments as one of the four members of the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), appointed to close down the operations of the paramilitary organizations (2003-2011) and he continued with this work on security issues when he and two colleagues were commissioned by the new Northern Ireland Government to produce a report advising them on strategy for disbanding the remaining paramilitary groups (2016).

Having been appointed to House of Lords in 1996 he was elected Convenor of the Liberal Democrats for the first four years of the Liberal/Conservative Coalition Government from 2010 to 2014. His international interests had previously led to his election as President of Liberal International, the global network of some 100 liberal political parties and organizations. He served from 2005 to 2009 and remains an active Presidente D’Honneur. He recently was elected to the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations and Defence.

He is the founding Director of the Conference on the Resolution of Intractable Conflict, based in Oxford and with colleagues in Belfast he also established the Centre for Democracy and Peace Building which continues work on the implementation of the principles of the Good Friday Agreement and takes the lessons of the Irish Peace Process to other communities in conflict. More recently he set up The Concord Foundation with a wider remit in understanding and addressing the nature of violent political conflict and its resolution. Lord Alderdice’s work has been recognized throughout the world with many fellowships, visiting professorships, honorary doctorates, and international awards. John is currently the Executive Chairman of CCW.

Seminars at 13.30, Hovenden Room, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.