Tuesday 19 May, 16.00
Seminar Room G, Manor Road Building

Please note room change

Julian Corbett and the British Way of War: Exploring the Principles for a European Naval Strategy 

Dr Friso Stevens, SST:CCW

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally altered European security, exposing the vulnerability of NATO’s eastern flank. The accession of Finland and Sweden may have strengthened the Alliance, but it also expands the maritime battlespace deep into the Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, U.S. defense planning is increasingly dominated by the Indo-Pacific and competition with China.

How can Europe collectively defend the Nordic-Baltic region—even in a scenario of constrained U.S. support? To answer this question, the paper turns to strategic theory and maritime history. It revisits British thinker Julian Corbett and demonstrates why his limited war framework—emphasizing sea control for advantage in positioning and maneuver, allowing economic pressure through blockade, and coalition power—offers a more suitable foundation for European defense than the continental Mahanian (US) or Castexian (French) paradigms.

The historical precedent is compelling. During the Crimean War, victory over Russia hinged not on a decisive land battle, but on the long-term, systemic effects of the Allied Baltic blockade. 

Dr Friso M.S. Stevens is a Visiting Fellow at CCW and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. Prior to joining SST-CCW, he was a Fulbright-Schuman NATO Security Studies Scholar at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. In March 2023, Friso earned a Ph.D. Degree in International Relations from Leiden University. In May 2025, this was published as a monograph with the Routledge Asian Security Studies Series under the title Chinese Assertiveness, Ideational Mobilization, and the Rise of Xi Jinping: Achieving Something. From 2021 to 2023, he was a Max Weber Postdoctoral Fellow at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies of the European University Institute in Florence, and a Postdoctoral Fellow in Asian Studies at the Department of Cultures, University of Helsinki, in 2023-2024. From 2017 to 2020, Friso was a Lecturer in Political Science at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, where he taught qualitative research courses, diplomacy in East Asia, and supervised Bachelor’s and Master’s theses. Friso holds Master's Degrees in International Law (Vrije Universiteit and Northwestern University), International Security Studies (Vrije Universiteit), and International Relations (Peking University), a Bachelor’s Degree in Dutch and European Law (Vrije Universiteit), and a Postgraduate Certificate in War Studies (King’s College London).

All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 12 May, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Project Maven: A Marine Colonel, His Team, and the Dawn of AI Warfare

Katrina Manson, Bloomberg

Katrina Manson’s recently published book explores the dramatic story of the secretive decade-long Pentagon campaign to deliver America into the age of AI warfare

In 2017, a small crew gathered in a windowless Pentagon room to put AI at the heart of how America makes war. Led by Drew Cukor, an unyielding Marine Corps colonel driven by the deaths of US troops and the prospect of war with an AI-equipped China, the Project Maven team raced to send AI into combat, igniting controversy and forever changing the US military. Summoning the mayhem of a tech startup, the Maven team wrestled Pentagon bureaucrats and each other. They enlisted an initially reluctant Silicon Valley, supercharged the growth of Palantir, and sent algorithms made by Amazon, Microsoft and others into hot wars. Maven fielded technology to identify targets at speed and scale, developed AI-infused command systems, and learned where AI fails.

The prospect of machines making independent decisions about life and death alarmed members of the US military across all ranks and the project sparked a revolt among thousands of tech workers at Google. Yet today, Maven’s AI-enabled systems operate in every branch of the US military and its lessons are folded into developing autonomous technology set to be on the front lines of future war. Project Maven and its legacy sit at the intersection of colliding trends: America’s insecurity about declining global power, the technological revolution driving AI into every aspect of society, the dominance of Big Tech, all-encompassing surveillance, and the ambitions of China’s growing military. As the second Trump administration pours money into military AI and autonomy while the UN Secretary-General clamours for a ban on killer robots, this book investigates whether AI will improve accuracy and save lives or if a fundamentally unreliable black-box technology will unleash mistakes and atrocities at scale.

Katrina Manson is an award–winning Bloomberg reporter who covers cyber, emerging tech, and national security. Her investigations exposed details of the US military’s AI use and US–China rivalry. She was previously the Financial Times US foreign policy and defense correspondent. www.bloomberg.com/katrina-manson 

All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 5 May, 16.30
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Reimagining Peace in the Middle East in a Changing World Order, a Jordanian perspective

Manar M. Dabbas, Jordanian Ambassador to the UK

The international system is undergoing profound transformation as global power dynamics shift. In this changing world order, traditional frameworks for addressing regional conflicts are being challenged. Despite the rapid and shifting changes in the global order, conflict in the Middle East has remained largely unchanged for decades, the factors fueling this conflict remain deeply entrenched and continue to worsen day by day, due to an international system that is unable to address the underlying causes. Jordan, a voice of reason in the region and the world continues to exert political and diplomatic efforts, guided by a forward-looking vision for a Middle East defined by stability, prosperity, and peace.

Manar M. Dabbas was appointed as the Jordanian Ambassador to the Court of St. James in September 2021. He served as His Majesty’s Office Director (Chief of Staff) and also served as the Director of the Office of the Crown Prince. Most recently, he served as the Private Advisor to His Majesty the King. Prior to that, he served as the Director of Political Affairs at the Royal Hashemite Court, since 2010. Before that, he was seconded by the Foreign Ministry to serve as an advisor at the Arab Gulf Program (AGFUND) in Riyadh.  He also served as the Acting Executive Director of the Government Performance Unit at the Prime Ministry in Jordan, where he played a major role in developing “The Jordanian National Agenda” document.

He also served as “The US and UN Desk Officer” at the Foreign Ministry, where he provided policy recommendations to the Minister on US-Jordan relations. In addition, he served as the Political and Congressional Counsellor at the Jordanian Embassy in Washington DC, from 1999 to 2004. Prior to that, he served as the Private Secretary to the Jordanian Prime Minister in 1996.  He attended numerous international meetings, including four sessions of the UN General Assembly meetings, in 1994, 1995, 1997, and 2004.  He joined the Foreign Ministry in 1992.

He holds an MA in Liberal Studies in International Relations from Georgetown University, as well as an MSc in Political Science and a BSc in Political Science and Economics from the University of Jordan.  He received the Medal of Independence for Civil Merit from the King of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan for his efforts in signing the US-Jordan Free Trade Agreement.

All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 29 April, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Control Without Command: Communication, Complexity, and the Problem of Military Command

Lt. Col. James Dutton, Royal Marines & CCW

Command and control (C2) is fundamental to military practice, yet no one can clearly define what it is. That is not a minor flaw. It reflects a deeper uncertainty about what command itself means. This problem is approached by examining competing definitions and deeper conceptions of C2, the persistent tension between centralisation and decentralisation, and how these dynamics are reflected in doctrine and historical cases.

At its core, C2 reflects a tension between the desire to control and the need to act. Developments in communications technology have not resolved this tension. They have intensified it. Increased connectivity expands the possibility of control, while increasing the complexity of coordination and the fragility of decision-making. This is not new, but it is now more visible and more acute. Current approaches lean towards explicit communication and systemic coordination, in part because they offer the promise of control. Control is measurable, visible, and appears achievable. Command is not. It depends on judgement, trust, and the willingness to act under uncertainty. The result is a tendency to substitute control for command, creating forces that are busy, connected, and informed, but less able to decide and act. Greater connectivity is therefore not solving the problem of command. It is changing it, and in many cases making it worse. Effective C2 does not depend on expanding systems of control, but on simplifying them. This requires reasserting command as a human activity—grounded in judgement, enabled by shared understanding, and resilient to the absence of information.

James Dutton is a Royal Marines officer with 18 years’ service, specialising in joint operations, military strategy, and policy. As a Hudson Fellow at CCW he is researching the impact of modern communication technologies on the conveyance of military intent and its execution in practice, exploring how changes in communications technology affect command, control, and decision-making. His operational and staff experience spans a range of UK defence and multinational contexts, with particular interest in how armed forces adapt command structures to meet evolving technological and strategic challenges.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 28 April, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Into The Void: Special Operations After the War on Terror

Martijn Kitzen, Netherlands Defence Academy

At this very moment an uncertain void exists between what Western armed forces are focusing on and what they might be required to do. The rise of China and the resurgence of Russia have led militaries to reorient towards conventional warfare. Yet today’s great power competition also involves hybrid activities that share many characteristics with irregular forms of warfare. Moreover, the threat of violent extremism persists. This presentation explores the question of how to fill this void in one form of military capability: Special Operations Forces (SOF). SOF were intimately involved in the War on Terror and became associated with it. In addition, they were often the most responsive and discrete capability to meet political needs. It is easy to understand why today’s politicians, policy makers and military leaders again are looking at such units to pick up new roles that help to fill the capability gap. The issue, however, is that during 20 years of GWoT special operations have been focused on manhunts and building local proxy forces to counter violent extremist organizations. As such, SOF have become highly specialized in missions associated with countering such non-state organizations and are less prepared to fulfill other tasks. Observers suggest SOF is on the cusp of a generational transformation, between what some have characterized as “third age” counterterrorism and its innovations into a “fourth age” of both ongoing competition and commitments and preparation for potential high intensity conflict. But how exactly do SOF evolve after the War on Terror and can they fill the void?  

This presentation is based on Into the Void, Special Operations Forces after the War on Terror, (Hurst, 2024) edited by James Kiras & Martijn Kitzen https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/into-the-void/

Martijn Kitzen holds the chair in irregular warfare and special operations at the Netherlands Defence Academy where he also heads the war studies department. Additionally, he is a professor by special appointment in war studies at Leiden University. His research and teaching focus on irregular warfare in fragmented societies with a particular interest in the way special operations forces can be deployed in such an environment. Martijn has published extensively about these topics and most recently co-edited the books The Conduct of War in the 21st Century and Into the Void: Special Operations Forces after the War on Terror. He regularly lectures at various international military institutes and staff colleges and his research activities include previous fellowships at the University of Amsterdam and the University of Oxford’s Changing Character of War Centre as well as field work in Afghanistan and the Sahel region. In addition to his scholarly work, Martijn has been involved in pre-deployment training and advise for various nations, worked as in-theatre advisor in Afghanistan and the Sahel, and served as academic advisor for the revision of NATO’s AJP 3.4.4 (counterinsurgency). Martijn holds a PhD in history, a MA in political science, and is a graduate of the Royal Netherlands Military Academy. As a former military officer, he has experience in NATO and UN missions.

All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 10 March, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

How to End a Nuclear War: Deterrence and Provocation in War Termination

Dr Lauren Sukin and Sam Seitz
Department of Politics and International Relations, Oxford

Is nuclear conflict manageable, or does any use of nuclear weapons inexorably push states toward escalation? And how do these dynamics differ between nuclear- and conventional-armed attacks? Many theorists have considered these questions, but empirically answering them is difficult given the absence of historical data. We address this challenge by fielding a pre-registered experimental survey of American adults designed around a series of hypothetical vignettes featuring attacks on the United States. The vignettes vary in the targets struck (conventional military installations, nuclear facilities, or civilian facilities) and the means of attack (conventional munitions or nuclear weapons). We then measure preferences over concession versus retaliation, the form and intensity of retaliation (including nuclear options), and respondents’ stated reasons for and against nuclear use. To probe mechanisms, we capture emotional reactions and broader situational assessments using both closed-ended measures and free-response prompts. By assessing the public’s response to various attacks across a range of targets, our study identifies what actions are more (less) likely to generate public pressure for (de)escalation. And by probing the emotional reactions and logic evinced by respondents, our study offers potential insights into the affective microfoundations underlying nuclear conflict dynamics.

Dr Lauren Sukin is the John G. Winant Associate Professor in US Foreign Policy in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford, as well as a Professorial Fellow in Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. Dr Sukin's research examines historical and contemporary challenges in international security, focusing particularly on the role of technology—including nuclear weapons—in alliances. Dr Sukin is an Affiliate at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), a Nonresident Scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and a Fellow at Charles University's Peace Research Centre Prague. She holds a PhD and MA from the Department of Political Science at Stanford University and ABs in political science and literary arts from Brown University.

Dr Sam Seitz is a Postdoctoral Fellow at Oxford's Department of Politics and International Relations and a Deterrence Futures Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. He was previously a Stanton Nuclear Postdoctoral Fellow at MIT, where he was affiliated with the Security Studies Program. De Seitz’ work primarily concerns the causes and consequences of states' military procurement choices and the effect of these choices on alliance politics. He is especially interested in the way that procurement choices relate to issues of nuclear strategy and the role that status and prestige concerns play in shaping military force postures. 

Seminars at 16.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 4 March, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Past the 11th Hour - How Britain Must Transform as the Global Security Order Crumbles

Sophia Gaston, Kings College London

The UK faces the gravest security environment since the Second World War, and yet its institutions remain unable to fully adapt to the seriousness of the challenge. It is clear that we are no longer in a time of peace, but the political incentives to adequately project deterrence to our adversaries, and prepare the nation for the realities of what could come, are failing to drive transformative change. In this seminar, geopolitical analyst and external adviser to the British Government, Sophia Gaston, will explain why we have passed the '11th hour' warnings in the security order, the profound consequences of inaction, and how Britain can and must respond to ensure we defend our interests in the battle of the century.

Sophia Gaston is a British foreign policy researcher and geopolitical analyst, focused on the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security theatres. She is a Research Fellow in the Centre for Statecraft and National Security in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, and a Senior Adviser to The Asia Group. Sophia advises the British Government as an external challenge partner and policy expert. Her research explores how best Britain can advance its core strategic interests, reinvigorate its closest alliances, and harness its instruments of national power to respond to the pernicious influence of authoritarian states like China and Russia. 

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 3 March, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Societal Resilience: Our communities know their strengths, do you?

Rowena Hill, Nottingham Trent University

In the recent Sky News and Tortoise Wargame podcast, Rob Johnson and Deborah Haynes asked our communities 'our enemies know our weaknesses, do you?'. This talk will aim to broaden that question set by using the evidence on societal resilience to ask our leaders, policy makers and decision makers 'our communities know their strengths, do you?'.

Focusing on evidence to explore how social psychology can inform societal resilience, this talk will outline how communities, responders, decision makers and civil protection structures do not currently take a strengths-based approach, rather than a deficit approach, to societal resilience. It will argue that a whole of society approach is needed to adequately identify, prepare, mitigate, manage, recover and adapt to risks and threats, especially societal wide risks such as homeland defence. Group behaviours, collective action, communication of risk, public narratives, and psychological and social health of communities and responding organisations will all be discussed, as well as the current systems to support societal resilience.

Rowena Hill is a Professor of Resilience, Emergencies and Disaster Science at Nottingham Trent University. Her research and policy work focusses on risk, resilience and wellbeing, applying evidence to inform these constructs at the individual, group, organisation and societal level. Her research tends to focus on societal wide risks and how the public preparedness is influenced by the local, sub-national and national resilience structures and narratives. She works with the emergency services, government departments, local authority level organisations, combined authorities, and the community and voluntary sector to understand how resilience can be coordinated, integrated and implemented through evidence informed practices.

Seminars at 16.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 24 February, 16.15
Seminar Room A, Manor Road Building

Naval Strategy in the Pacific: Balancing not Challenging China

Andrew Ward, Royal Navy

Alarmism persists over a growing Chinese Navy, yet Chinese naval strategy suggests defence rather than offence.  The root of the problem is inferring too much from Beijing’s naval building programme.  Simple capability analysis is too scientific – there is no room for analysis of Chinese maritime intent amidst counting new hulls and long-range missiles.  If the West overreacts to a growing Chinese Navy, the risk of a damaging arms race in the Western Pacific increases.  Ever more capable warships operating in the confined waters of the East and South China Sea risk a war begun by miscalculation.  In this talk, Lt Cdr Ward will reprise his theme of ‘the mirroring fallacy’, first described at a CCW lunchtime lecture in Trinity Term 2024.  Now informed by operational experience from 2025, Andrew will show that inferring Chinese naval intent as a mirror of Western naval intent is fallacious.

Andrew Ward was the 2023-24 Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Fellow at CCW. Andrew joined the Royal Navy in 2012, serving at sea in destroyers HMS DRAGON and DUNCAN in the Middle East. Recently he has been working in international policy at the Ministry of Defence and Northwood Headquarters. He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at University College, was a visiting student at Washington & Lee University and completed an MA in Defence and Security Studies (Maritime) at King’s College London in 2021. His paper on the Royal Navy and the Early Cold War was published in January 2022. In 2025 Andrew sailed with the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales on deployment to the Asia-Pacific region.

Seminars at 16.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 18 February, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Defence and military ecosystem in Turkiye

Dr Seyithan Ahmet Ates and Col Gagri Sagiroglu, CCW

Over the last two decades, Türkiye’s defence industry has witnessed a dramatic transformation, evolving the country from a dependent buyer into a significant military power and top-tier exporter. Once the world's third-largest arms importer (1995–1999), Türkiye has undergone a strategic paradigm shift to emerge as one of the top 10 global military equipment exporters as of 2025.

This seminar argues that such a transformation cannot be explained solely by government incentives or external shocks like the Russia-Ukraine War. Instead, we will explore how the Turkish defense industry has evolved into a holistic ecosystem driven by a convergence of critical factors: advanced human capital, resilience against embargoes, a robust manufacturing base, societal ownership and embracement, and—most importantly—visionary leadership.

The discussion will then extend beyond manufacturing capacity to operational application. In the second part of the seminar, Col. Cagri Sagiroglu will examine to what extent Türkiye is leveraging these indigenous capabilities to enhance NATO interoperability and contribute to regional stabilization. The session will analyze how this new industrial autonomy is reshaping Türkiye’s role within the Alliance and fostering new models of defense collaboration with strategic partners.

Dr Seyithan Ahmet Ates is a professor at Ankara University of Social Sciences and as the head of the Department of Economics. He has been actively involved in projects with leading international organizations, including the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the European Union (EU), where he has contributed as a consultant or country specialist. He earned his undergraduate and graduate degrees from the Vienna University of Economics and completed his doctoral studies in Social and Economic Sciences at the Vienna University of Technology. 

Colonel Dr Cagri Sagiroglu is a Turkish Army officer with more than twenty years of distinguished service in operational command, strategic planning, and military innovation. As a Research Fellow, he is examining approaches to refine operational planning and thereby sustain competitive military advantage amid multi-domain and hybrid threats. Col. Sagiroglu graduated from Kuleli Military High School (1997) and the Land War Academy (2001) in Türkiye. He completed specialised training in field artillery and commando operations, followed by a master’s degree in international relations. His PhD in Industrial Engineering, conferred jointly by the Universities of Groningen and Çukurova, examined artificial pattern recognition and data mining as tools for regional security challenges at senior decision-making levels. Colonel Sagiroglu currently serves at the National Defence University Army War College.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 17 February, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

BELARUS: Autocracy, War and Diplomacy. A British Diplomat’s Observations of Life Inside Belarus.  

Jack Hands

Belarus was once Europe’s forgotten country, although that is no longer the case. President Lukashenko has been in power now for 31 years, the last dictatorship in Europe, remaining Russia’s closest ally. The country has suffered an extremely turbulent period, with mass protests in 2020, a brutal ongoing human rights clampdown taking place ever since, the forced diversion of Ryanair Flight 4978 to arrest a civil society activist and the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which was launched from Belarusian territory.

Jack served on the ground during this extraordinary period and will share his views and observations on these events, looking past the headlines to offer a fresh perspective on the country. Jack will discuss what life was like for a British diplomat living inside Belarus and why the country matters more than ever, also looking ahead to what next.   

Jack Hands served as Britain’s Deputy Ambassador and His Majesty’s Consul to Belarus from 2021 to 2024. Jack is currently Head of the UK Central European Foreign Policy Network, based in Vienna. Prior to this, he was Press Officer to the Minister for Exports and held roles in the UK and European Parliaments, with a stint in South Korea reporting on Korean peninsula issues.

All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 10 February, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Strategic Net Assessment

Dr Rob Johnson and Dr Edward Howell, CCW

Economic coercion is in vogue amongst the major powers of the world. CCW’s research has examined the consequences of a hostile China blockade of Taiwan, in both the short and long term, using the methodology of net assessment. Dr Johnson and Dr Howell illustrate the results in East Asia and how the net assessment approach can be used.

Dr Edward Howell is the Strategic Net Assessment Research Fellow with SST:CCW. His research concerns the politics, international relations, and security of the Korean Peninsula and East Asia, with particular interests in inter-Korean and DPRK-US relations, and the UK's relations with the Northeast Asia. His latest monograph, North Korea and the Global Nuclear Order: When Bad Behaviour Pays, was published by Oxford University Press in 2023, and his forthcoming monograph, A New Axis of Upheaval: North Korea, Russia, and China—and Why We Should Care is expected for publication in 2026. He is also the Korea Foundation Fellow at The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), London.

Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of the Oxford Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre, Senior Research Fellow of Pembroke College, University of Oxford. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian Defence University Staff College and Adjunct Professor of Strategic Studies at Rennes School of Business in France. He is a historian, strategic studies and International Relations scholar combining academic analyses with ‘knowledge exchange’ policy impact. Dr Johnson was the first Director of the UK Office of Net Assessment and Challenge, working closely with the Secretary of State for Defence, Ministers, and Cabinet Office. He continues to advise and delivers direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters.

All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 4 February, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

The Community Dilemma: Defence Integration in a Post-Heroic European Union

Dr John Helferich,University of Oxford

Why have European leaders repeatedly advocated an EU defence capacity yet so often fallen short of their ambitions, and how does EU defence function alongside NATO? Focusing on three defining periods of EU defence integration (1999, 2004, and 2016), this paper draws on archival material and elite interviews to reassess when and why integration advances. Building on insights from psychological approaches in International Relations, it shows that major institutional steps tend to cluster around moments of acute political strain rather than clear shifts in the external threat environment. This perspective unsettles dominant strategic and institutionalist accounts and opens new questions about the drivers, limits, and consequences of European defence cooperation.

Dr John Helferich is a researcher at Pembroke College’s Global Security Programme and a Lecturer in Politics at Hertford College, University of Oxford. His research focuses on Euro-Atlantic security cooperation and transformations in global order.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 3 February, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Money in Modern War and the Blockade of Germany, 1914-18

Professor Jonathan Boff

President Franklin Roosevelt once said ‘no major war has ever been won or lost through lack of money.’ He was wrong. This paper explains why. It argues that as states struggled to finance the immense war efforts required by the two world wars, and to undermine their enemies, money became a crucial weapon. The UK and USA led the way in discovering new methods of using money to do both. In the process they invented forms of economic statecraft that remain relevant today, redefined the relationship between citizen and state as well as the meaning of money itself, and blurred the boundaries between war and peace. Using money as a lens through which to study the two world wars allows us to see them in a fresh light, as a case study of the blockade of Germany between 1914 and 1918 demonstrates.

Jonathan Boff is Professor of Military History at the University of Birmingham, where he teaches courses covering topics from Homer to Helmand. His prize-winning books include Winning and Losing on the Western Front (Cambridge University Press, 2012) and Haig's Enemy (Oxford University Press, 2018). Oxford University Press will publish his history of economic statecraft and warfare, The Age of Mammon and Mars: Money and War in the Modern World, in 2026.

All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 27 January, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

A New World Order? Warnings and Indicators

Dr Rob Johnson, SST:CCW

The disagreements over Venezuela and Greenland have called into question the rules-based international order. Dr Johnson nevertheless asks whether strategically, this is a structural shift underway. He examines the consequences and the longer term implications.

Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of the Oxford Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre, Senior Research Fellow of Pembroke College, University of Oxford. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian Defence University Staff College and Adjunct Professor of Strategic Studies at Rennes School of Business in France. He is a historian, strategic studies and International Relations scholar combining academic analyses with ‘knowledge exchange’ policy impact. Dr Johnson was the first Director of the UK Office of Net Assessment and Challenge, working closely with the Secretary of State for Defence, Ministers, and Cabinet Office. He continues to advise and delivers direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters.

All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 21 January, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Warhead: How the Brain Shapes War and War Shapes the Brain

Dr Nicholas Wright, Georgetown University

Why did France lose to the Nazis, despite its defenders having more tanks, troops, and guns? How did Ukraine repel Russia’s initial onslaught? In his new book, Warhead, Wright journeys through the brain to show us how it shapes human behaviour in conflict and war. Cutting-edge research comes to life through battle stories from history: What was it like for American or Chinese foot soldiers in World War Two? How did leaders like Churchill or Eisenhower make wiser decisions? Courage, leadership, deception, cooperation… The brains with which we live our everyday lives are built for conflict: in the office or on the battlefield. How will human conflict shape our future technologies? In an increasingly dangerous world that threatens our values and success, we must understand why we humans fight, lose and win wars. So that we can build a more peaceful world through self-knowledge.
Warhead’s interdisciplinary approach has received kind praise from leading thinkers on war such as Sir Lawrence Freedman, Beatrice Heuser and Sir David Omand, as well as from leading neuroscientists such as Karl Friston and Chris Frith.

Dr Nicholas Wright, MRCP, PhD is a neuroscientist and advisor to the Pentagon Joint Staff who researches the brain, technology and security at University College London, Georgetown University, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the National Defense University in Washington DC. He works with governments and the private sector. He was a neurology doctor in London and Oxford, and published two edited books and many academic papers (e.g. Proc. Royal Soc., J. Neuro., Neuron), which have been covered by the BBC, New York Times, and The Economist. He has appeared on CNN and the BBC, and contributes to outlets like Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Atlantic, and Slate.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 20 January, 16.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Russia’s Hybrid War

Bob Seely

Bob Seely MBE is a Conservative Party politician who served as the MP for the Isle of Wight from 2017 until 2024. He is a former journalist and soldier. From 1990 to 1995, he worked as a foreign correspondent in the USSR and in post-Soviet states. From 2008 to 2017, he served in the British Armed Forces on the Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and ISIS campaigns.

All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 2 December, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

NATO - Deterrence and peace in Europe through design or luck

Angus MacIntyre, CCW & RAF

Angus will look at what NATO is currently doing, versus what he believes it should be doing and examine key aspects of current NATO activity and role, concluding that luck is playing far too big a part for fear of escalation.  NATO must commit to doing much more from strategic leadership, innovation, and a willingness to be seen to be leading the multi-national campaign from the front. 

Angus MacIntyre is a serving military officer in the RAF and has recently returned from a year working in NATO HQ in Brussels as part of the team delivering support to Ukraine.  The key aspect of Angus’ work was cohering UK, UKR, US and NATO efforts to ensure unity of thought and direction of travel, during delicate start-up negotiations.  In exploring NATO’s current role in deterring Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine there are questions that arise that go to the very core of NATO’s existence.  The change of government in the US has placed huge pressure on NATO’s European members to shoulder a greater burden for their own defence or risk limiting the US’ response in a crisis. What happens if the US completely withdraws from NATO ? Does Article 5 really have any utility ? What can be done to lure the US back into a more committed relationship with NATO ?  With commentators and governments from around Europe both hinting at the inevitability of escalation and further conflict the key question arises – Is Security in Europe by Luck or By Design ?

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 26 November, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Towards a Freer and more Open Indo-Pacific: The Takaichi Administration and its quest towards enhancing FOIP

Kotaro Katsuki, Embassy of Japan to the UK

Kotaro Katsuki is the Minister and Head of Political Section at the Embassy of Japan to the United Kingdom. He has held various managerial positions in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Headquarters and the Japanese Government including Free Trade Agreement negotiations, Sustainable Development Goals implementation and Sustaining Peace efforts among others.

Most recently, Mr. Katsuki was Minister and Deputy Head of Mission at the Embassy of Japan in Sri Lanka, where he was heavily involved in facilitating the IMF program and debt restructuring process following the economic crisis in Sri Lanka in 2022. Mr Katsuki joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1994. His other foreign postings have been at the Embassy of Japan in the United States of America and the Embassy of Japan in the People’s Republic of China. He holds a BA in Law from the University of Tokyo and an MA in Regional Studies East Asia from Harvard University. He has lectured at various universities in Japan and the United States and is a frequent speaker at policy events around the globe.

This talk seeks to offer a portrayal of the early stages of the new Prime Minister’s term and her cabinet’s policy orientation. In so doing, it will shed light on the challenges that Japan faces and how the country aspires to cope with them.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 25 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Sea Control Re-dux - Why the global operating system is a sea-based phenomenon and why the sea matters to global stability

Dr Sean Andrews

The oceans are the invisible infrastructure of modern civilisation—the global operating system upon which trade, energy, data, and climate stability depend. More than 80 percent of world commerce moves by sea, and over 95 percent of international internet traffic flows through undersea cables. Yet the maritime domain remains fundamentally anarchic: beyond the domestic seas, it is a space where states, corporations, and non-state actors contest resources, assert coercive power, or exploit regulatory gaps. Grey-zone operations, piracy, unregulated deep-sea mining, and environmental degradation reveal the fragility of these commons.

This seminar, “Sea Control Re-dux,” revisits the classical concept of sea control - from Mahan and Corbett to the drone age - to argue its enduring relevance for strategic stability and global prosperity. It examines how all powers - great and small must adapt maritime strategies to secure sea lines of communication, protect critical digital infrastructure, and steward the marine environment. By highlighting the ocean’s centrality to economic flows, climate regulation, and human security, the seminar challenges audiences to recognise the sea not merely as a battlefield or resource but as the connective tissue of the international order—and a domain that matters to everyone.

Dr Sean Andrews is a recently retired naval Captain with extensive operational and command experience. His research centres on the evolving character and strategic utility of naval power and maritime security. Dr Andrews is currently the Five Eyes Fellow at the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. Most recently, he was the Senior Maritime Fellow at the National Security College, Australian National University, and a Visiting Fellow at SST:CCW. He is an Associate Member of King’s College London. Previously, Dr Andrews served as Director of the Sea Power Centre – Australia and founded the Indo-Pacific’s Six Nation Maritime Working Group.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 18 November, 13.30

CHANGE TO VENUE: PEMBROKE COLLEGE, SCR PARLOUR

The End of Cybersecurity: An Optimist’s Guide to Fixing the Global Software Quality Problem

Jen Easterly

Many conversations today frame AI + cyber as a looming arms race—faster attackers, smarter malware, more breaches. But what if the real opportunity is to make the cybersecurity aftermarket obsolete by addressing its root cause: insecure, defect-ridden software? For nearly 40 years, the world has been patching the same types of software flaws that caused the first Internet crash in 1988. The truth is: We don’t have a cybersecurity problem. We have a software quality problem. That can finally change.

Jen Easterly is a globally recognized cybersecurity and national security leader with deep expertise on cyber threats, emerging technologies, and organizational resilience. She most recently served as Director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency—America’s premier cyber defense agency—where she led efforts to protect and defend U.S. critical infrastructure from cyber threats.

Prior to CISA, Jen led Firm Resilience at Morgan Stanley and built the Firm’s Cybersecurity Fusion Center. In uniform, she helped establish U.S. Cyber Command and commanded the Army’s first cyber operations battalion, deploying multiple times, including to Haiti, the Balkans, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In addition, Jen served twice at the White House and held senior leadership roles at the National Security Agency.

Currently, Jen is a Visiting Fellow at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford. She also serves as a Strategic Advisor to Huntress and as Chair of Dataminr’s Corporate Advisory Board. A graduate of West Point and a Rhodes Scholar, Jen is a two-time recipient of the Bronze Star and has received numerous awards, including the George C. Marshall Award in Ethical Leadership and the Champion of Internet Freedom Award.

Seminars at 13.30,
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 12 November, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Composing a Defence Review on Tech

Richard Barrons

The talk will begin with discussing the parameters of the Strategic Defence Review, including its terms of reference and the major factors that affected. This will be followed by some reflections on the method adopted for this (unique for UK) externally-led Review. To conclude, some personal reflections on the reality of command at strategic and Theatre level, including in the transition from post-Cold War era to a new era of state-level confrontation.

GENERAL SIR RICHARD BARRONS served as Commander Joint Forces Command, one of the six ‘Chiefs of Staff’ leading the UK Armed Forces, 2013-2016. His military career began as an artillery officer and included the last decade of the Cold War, leadership from Captain to General on military operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Iraq and Afghanistan, and serving as the Director of all UK military operations as Lieutenant General. Now as Co-Chairman of Universal Defence & Security Solutions, he advises on senior leadership, defence and national security matters - especially Digital Age transformation for 21st Century warfare - and is a regular media commentator. He was one of the leaders of the UK Prime Minister’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review and is a Senior Consulting Fellow at Chatham House. His latest book, ‘War and Peace, the Life and Times of General Sir Richard Barrons’ was published in 2024.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 11 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Reflections on American foreign and defence policy

Shashank Joshi, The Economist

American foreign and defence policy is in the throes of change. A new national defence strategy points to a reduced focus on Europe and a heightened emphasis on the western hemisphere in general and the American homeland in particular. Military action against Iran and alleged drug cartels offers preliminary evidence of how the president thinks about the use of force. But there are larger unanswered questions over the administration's approach to nuclear strategy, competition with China and the proper balance of forces between different theatres. To what extent can we identify coherent elements of a Trump doctrine?

Shashank Joshi is Defence Editor at The Economist, where he covers a wide range of military and security issues. He is also a Visiting Senior Fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College London. Prior to joining The Economist in 2018, he served as Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He was also a Research Associate at Oxford University’s Changing Character of War Programme. He has published books on Iran’s nuclear programme and India’s armed forces and  holds degrees from Cambridge and Harvard, where he served as a Kennedy Scholar from Britain to the United States. He has given evidence to the House of Commons’ foreign and defence committees and to the House of Lords’ international relations and defence committee, as well as lecturing regularly to the UK Defence Academy. At The Economist he has reported extensively on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and his special reports have covered military technology, lessons from Ukraine and the future of intelligence.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 4 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Open Sources and Theories of Intelligence Analysis

Wojciech Zajączkowski, Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The digital revolution and the development of artificial intelligence are affecting an ever-growing range of fields, and intelligence analysis is no exception. Amid such dynamic changes, reflection is needed to better understand their nature, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of both traditional and emerging analytical techniques. One domain that perhaps best captures the current situation is open-source analysis.

Depending on the emphasis placed on the key stages of the intelligence (analytical) cycle, we can distinguish the following theoretical approaches to analysis: psychological, formal, and phenomenological. These approaches are complementary in nature. Their applicability depends on the type of sources and the nature of the questions the analyst must address.

The history of analytical craft offers numerous examples of both appropriate and flawed approaches to open sources. One of the most compelling cases remains the collapse of the USSR, which illustrates the consequences of failing to grasp the problem—not only by analysts but also (and perhaps above all) by policymakers.

Wojciech Zajączkowski, a graduate of the Catholic University of Lublin, currently serves as Undersecretary of State at the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He previously held the posts of Polish ambassador to Bucharest, Moscow, and Beijing. His diplomatic experience also includes assignments in Ukraine and Turkmenistan.

Mr. Zajączkowski earned his PhD from the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences and collaborated for an extended period with the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw. His main academic interests include the history of Russia and the USSR, as well as the theory of intelligence analysis. He has published five books and several dozen articles on these subjects.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 29 October, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Seminar cancelled: We apologise that this seminar is cancelled - we will book another date with Nicholas soon.

Warhead: How the Brain Shapes War and War Shapes the Brain

Dr Nicholas Wright, Georgetown University

Why did France lose to the Nazis, despite its defenders having more tanks, troops, and guns? How did Ukraine repel Russia’s initial onslaught? In his new book, Warhead, Wright journeys through the brain to show us how it shapes human behaviour in conflict and war. Cutting-edge research comes to life through battle stories from history: What was it like for American or Chinese foot soldiers in World War Two? How did leaders like Churchill or Eisenhower make wiser decisions? Courage, leadership, deception, cooperation… The brains with which we live our everyday lives are built for conflict: in the office or on the battlefield. How will human conflict shape our future technologies? In an increasingly dangerous world that threatens our values and success, we must understand why we humans fight, lose and win wars. So that we can build a more peaceful world through self-knowledge.
Warhead’s interdisciplinary approach has received kind praise from leading thinkers on war such as Sir Lawrence Freedman, Beatrice Heuser and Sir David Omand, as well as from leading neuroscientists such as Karl Friston and Chris Frith.

Dr Nicholas Wright, MRCP, PhD is a neuroscientist and advisor to the Pentagon Joint Staff who researches the brain, technology and security at University College London, Georgetown University, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the National Defense University in Washington DC. He works with governments and the private sector. He was a neurology doctor in London and Oxford, and published two edited books and many academic papers (e.g. Proc. Royal Soc., J. Neuro., Neuron), which have been covered by the BBC, New York Times, and The Economist. He has appeared on CNN and the BBC, and contributes to outlets like Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Atlantic, and Slate.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 28 October 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Military strategy and complex uncertainty

Maria de Goeij

The preliminary lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war are not new; at their core these lessons have been described by military strategists throughout history. They are, however, an uncomfortable reminder that warfare is complicated and inherently complex, and combinations of, for example, human behaviour and fast innovation contribute to fast adaptive cycles and, arguably, increased unpredictability. Flexibility, adaptability, and the ability to deal with what von Clausewitz referred to as ‘friction’ have been emphasised as being important by military strategists, but in practice western approaches to military strategy remain largely ‘static’. Maintaining or gaining competitive advantage in an unpredictable multipolar world arguably requires more non-static and systemic approaches to strategy making, but this is easier said than done. In this seminar Maria will explore the interdisciplinary foundations for a practical theory of adaptive strategy drawing from literature on military strategy, complexity science, behavioural science, and international relations.

Maria is a senior research fellow at the SST-CCW Centre at Oxford University. Her research focuses on systems theory and the analysis and influence of strategic behaviour in conflict and warfare, looking at different levers of power. Before joining SST-CCW Maria led a team of intelligence analysts at TRSSI, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters. She has been working as a consultant and advisor in both the public and private sector.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 21 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

The Rise and Fall of the British Army, 1975–2025

Ben Barry, International Institute for Strategic Studies

The last half century has seen society, technology, the character of conflict and the British Army itself all change greatly. From a low point in the 1970s, the Army's war fighting capability increased in the 1980s in the face of a prospective war with the Soviet Union. This capability was then tested on operations from Kuwait in 1991 through to Afghanistan in 2001 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

There followed two decades of descent from this high plateau of military achievement. Mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan led to a decline in support for military deployments. Cuts to defence funding and botched equipment procurements also meant the British Army of 2021 was only half the size of that of 1970, and with much key fighting equipment either obsolete or approaching obsolescence.

About the speaker

Ben Barry is a Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Before this, he served in the Army, where he commanded an armoured infantry battalion and a multinational brigade on United Nations and Nato operations in Bosnia. He is the author of the acclaimed book ‘Blood, Metal and Dust: How Victory Turned into Defeat in Afghanistan and Iraq’.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 15 October, 17.15
Online only

Politics and the General in Supreme Command

Richard Adams

Richard was an Australian Fulbright Scholar to Yale University where he was a Global Justice Fellow. He was the inaugural Chief of Navy Fellow and a Visiting Fellow to the Changing Character of War Centre at Pembroke College, Oxford. He holds doctorates: from the University of Western Australia and from the University of New South Wales. He is interested in the relationship between law and ethics, in public responsibility, in character, and in relationships between leadership, organisational culture, and risk. He serves in the Royal Australian Navy in the rank a commander. He has been Deputy Director at the Royal Australian Navy Sea Power Centre, and at the Centre for Defence Leadership and Ethics at the Australian War College. He has taught in the areas of Military Ethics and Australian Defence Policy at the Australian Defence Force Academy. He speaks regularly to the Royal Australian Navy Command Designate Course. His recent book is Politics and the General in Supreme Command (Routledge, 2024).

Join via Microsoft Teams, no need to pre-register

All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 14 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

How to Survive a Hostile World

Patrick Porter

The Changing Character of War will convene a panel to discuss Patrick Porter's new book with Stanford University Press. Porter makes the case for realism in the age of war, economic dislocation and climate crisis. Porter tackles three prominent criticisms of realism: that it is immoral, unrealistic, and provincial. Realism, he argues, is everything its critics believe it is not: moral in its commitment to securing the polity and its interests in a world where there is no higher government; realistic and the best starting point for explaining how human groups tend to behave; and practical for use by everyone, everywhere, including beyond the Euro-Atlantic.

Professor Patrick Porter is Professor of International Security and Strategy at the University of Birmingham. He will be joined a panel to discuss his book, published this month by Stanford University Press.

• Dr Susan B. Martin is a Senior Lecturer in the War Studies Department at King’s College London.

•  Dr Jeanne Morefield is Associate Professor in Political Theory and Tutorial Fellow in Politics, New College Oxford.

•  Dr David Blagden is Associate Professor of International Security and Strategy, University of Exeter.

• Dr Seán Molloy is Reader in International Relations at the University of Kent.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 17 June, 13.30
Eccles Room, Pembroke College

The Struggle for Liberation: A History of the Rwandan Civil War, 1990-1994

John Kegel, Netherlands Defence Academy

Venue Change: Pembroke college, Eccles Room

The story of the Rwandan Genocide has been told many times by scholars and journalists. Over the course of a hundred days in the spring and summer of 1994, about eight hundred thousand Tutsi and moderate Hutu were murdered by their extremist Hutu compatriots. Those hundred days were the final phase of a four-year civil war, also known as the Struggle for Liberation, which formed the immediate context of the genocide. Though scholars have researched preparations for the genocide and the international community’s role in it, none has placed the Struggle for Liberation at the heart of the narrative. However, the preparation of the genocide, the rise and fall of the moderate opposition, the degradation of the Forces armées rwandaises (FAR) from a respected fighting force to a genocidal militia, the role of the international community, the Arusha negotiations, and the execution of the genocide all took place in the context of that war. John Burton Kegel contends that the Struggle for Liberation forms the bedrock of any genuine understanding of Rwanda between 1990 and 1994, and indeed beyond. The Struggle for Liberation, which eventually led to the genocide, was fought between the FAR and the civilians and soldiers of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) and its armed wing, the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA). The civil war started on October 1, 1990, when the RPF entered Rwanda from Uganda, where Rwandan refugees had lived throughout the Great Lakes region since roughly 1959. This book traces the history of those refugees—and Rwanda’s deeper Hutu-Tutsi divide—from the precolonial period up to 1990. It also provides a wholly new take on how the disciplined RPF, which rules Rwanda to this day, was born and organized.

John Burton Kegel specializes in African military and economic history from roughly 1850 to the present. He is a lecturer at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy and a research fellow at the African Studies Centre Leiden, where his work is sponsored by the Ford Foundation.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.