''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 4 February, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

The Community Dilemma: Defence Integration in a Post-Heroic European Union

Dr John Helferich,University of Oxford

Why have European leaders repeatedly advocated an EU defence capacity yet so often fallen short of their ambitions, and how does EU defence function alongside NATO? Focusing on three defining periods of EU defence integration (1999, 2004, and 2016), this paper draws on archival material and elite interviews to reassess when and why integration advances. Building on insights from psychological approaches in International Relations, it shows that major institutional steps tend to cluster around moments of acute political strain rather than clear shifts in the external threat environment. This perspective unsettles dominant strategic and institutionalist accounts and opens new questions about the drivers, limits, and consequences of European defence cooperation.

Dr John Helferich is a researcher at Pembroke College’s Global Security Programme and a Lecturer in Politics at Hertford College, University of Oxford. His research focuses on Euro-Atlantic security cooperation and transformations in global order.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 21 January, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Warhead: How the Brain Shapes War and War Shapes the Brain

Dr Nicholas Wright, Georgetown University

Why did France lose to the Nazis, despite its defenders having more tanks, troops, and guns? How did Ukraine repel Russia’s initial onslaught? In his new book, Warhead, Wright journeys through the brain to show us how it shapes human behaviour in conflict and war. Cutting-edge research comes to life through battle stories from history: What was it like for American or Chinese foot soldiers in World War Two? How did leaders like Churchill or Eisenhower make wiser decisions? Courage, leadership, deception, cooperation… The brains with which we live our everyday lives are built for conflict: in the office or on the battlefield. How will human conflict shape our future technologies? In an increasingly dangerous world that threatens our values and success, we must understand why we humans fight, lose and win wars. So that we can build a more peaceful world through self-knowledge.
Warhead’s interdisciplinary approach has received kind praise from leading thinkers on war such as Sir Lawrence Freedman, Beatrice Heuser and Sir David Omand, as well as from leading neuroscientists such as Karl Friston and Chris Frith.

Dr Nicholas Wright, MRCP, PhD is a neuroscientist and advisor to the Pentagon Joint Staff who researches the brain, technology and security at University College London, Georgetown University, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the National Defense University in Washington DC. He works with governments and the private sector. He was a neurology doctor in London and Oxford, and published two edited books and many academic papers (e.g. Proc. Royal Soc., J. Neuro., Neuron), which have been covered by the BBC, New York Times, and The Economist. He has appeared on CNN and the BBC, and contributes to outlets like Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Atlantic, and Slate.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 26 November, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Towards a Freer and more Open Indo-Pacific: The Takaichi Administration and its quest towards enhancing FOIP

Kotaro Katsuki, Embassy of Japan to the UK

Kotaro Katsuki is the Minister and Head of Political Section at the Embassy of Japan to the United Kingdom. He has held various managerial positions in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Headquarters and the Japanese Government including Free Trade Agreement negotiations, Sustainable Development Goals implementation and Sustaining Peace efforts among others.

Most recently, Mr. Katsuki was Minister and Deputy Head of Mission at the Embassy of Japan in Sri Lanka, where he was heavily involved in facilitating the IMF program and debt restructuring process following the economic crisis in Sri Lanka in 2022. Mr Katsuki joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1994. His other foreign postings have been at the Embassy of Japan in the United States of America and the Embassy of Japan in the People’s Republic of China. He holds a BA in Law from the University of Tokyo and an MA in Regional Studies East Asia from Harvard University. He has lectured at various universities in Japan and the United States and is a frequent speaker at policy events around the globe.

This talk seeks to offer a portrayal of the early stages of the new Prime Minister’s term and her cabinet’s policy orientation. In so doing, it will shed light on the challenges that Japan faces and how the country aspires to cope with them.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 12 November, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Composing a Defence Review on Tech

Richard Barrons

The talk will begin with discussing the parameters of the Strategic Defence Review, including its terms of reference and the major factors that affected. This will be followed by some reflections on the method adopted for this (unique for UK) externally-led Review. To conclude, some personal reflections on the reality of command at strategic and Theatre level, including in the transition from post-Cold War era to a new era of state-level confrontation.

GENERAL SIR RICHARD BARRONS served as Commander Joint Forces Command, one of the six ‘Chiefs of Staff’ leading the UK Armed Forces, 2013-2016. His military career began as an artillery officer and included the last decade of the Cold War, leadership from Captain to General on military operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Iraq and Afghanistan, and serving as the Director of all UK military operations as Lieutenant General. Now as Co-Chairman of Universal Defence & Security Solutions, he advises on senior leadership, defence and national security matters - especially Digital Age transformation for 21st Century warfare - and is a regular media commentator. He was one of the leaders of the UK Prime Minister’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review and is a Senior Consulting Fellow at Chatham House. His latest book, ‘War and Peace, the Life and Times of General Sir Richard Barrons’ was published in 2024.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 29 October, 17.15
Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Seminar cancelled: We apologise that this seminar is cancelled - we will book another date with Nicholas soon.

Warhead: How the Brain Shapes War and War Shapes the Brain

Dr Nicholas Wright, Georgetown University

Why did France lose to the Nazis, despite its defenders having more tanks, troops, and guns? How did Ukraine repel Russia’s initial onslaught? In his new book, Warhead, Wright journeys through the brain to show us how it shapes human behaviour in conflict and war. Cutting-edge research comes to life through battle stories from history: What was it like for American or Chinese foot soldiers in World War Two? How did leaders like Churchill or Eisenhower make wiser decisions? Courage, leadership, deception, cooperation… The brains with which we live our everyday lives are built for conflict: in the office or on the battlefield. How will human conflict shape our future technologies? In an increasingly dangerous world that threatens our values and success, we must understand why we humans fight, lose and win wars. So that we can build a more peaceful world through self-knowledge.
Warhead’s interdisciplinary approach has received kind praise from leading thinkers on war such as Sir Lawrence Freedman, Beatrice Heuser and Sir David Omand, as well as from leading neuroscientists such as Karl Friston and Chris Frith.

Dr Nicholas Wright, MRCP, PhD is a neuroscientist and advisor to the Pentagon Joint Staff who researches the brain, technology and security at University College London, Georgetown University, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the National Defense University in Washington DC. He works with governments and the private sector. He was a neurology doctor in London and Oxford, and published two edited books and many academic papers (e.g. Proc. Royal Soc., J. Neuro., Neuron), which have been covered by the BBC, New York Times, and The Economist. He has appeared on CNN and the BBC, and contributes to outlets like Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Atlantic, and Slate.

Seminars at 17.15, Old Library, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 15 October, 17.15
Online only

Politics and the General in Supreme Command

Richard Adams

Richard was an Australian Fulbright Scholar to Yale University where he was a Global Justice Fellow. He was the inaugural Chief of Navy Fellow and a Visiting Fellow to the Changing Character of War Centre at Pembroke College, Oxford. He holds doctorates: from the University of Western Australia and from the University of New South Wales. He is interested in the relationship between law and ethics, in public responsibility, in character, and in relationships between leadership, organisational culture, and risk. He serves in the Royal Australian Navy in the rank a commander. He has been Deputy Director at the Royal Australian Navy Sea Power Centre, and at the Centre for Defence Leadership and Ethics at the Australian War College. He has taught in the areas of Military Ethics and Australian Defence Policy at the Australian Defence Force Academy. He speaks regularly to the Royal Australian Navy Command Designate Course. His recent book is Politics and the General in Supreme Command (Routledge, 2024).

Join via Microsoft Teams, no need to pre-register

All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 28 May, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

A Revolution in Maritime Military Affairs? Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea

Commander Steve Walton, Royal Navy & SST-CCW

Ukraine, without a recognisable Navy at the start of Russia’s 2022 full scale invasion, has achieved some remarkable successes in the Black Sea, but has it demonstrated revolution, or evolution and if so, what can it tell Naval planners about possible future trends of warfare at sea?

Commander Walton is the 2024-25 Royal Navy Hudson Fellow at St Antony’s College and a visiting research fellow at SST-CCW. He commissioned into the Royal Navy in 1992 from Britannia Royal Naval College in Dartmouth and holds a Masters in Applied Security Strategy from the University of Exeter.

Commander Walton’s operational duties have included Maritime Counter Terrorist operations in Northern Ireland, sanctions enforcement in the Arabian Gulf, and anti-submarine patrols in the North Atlantic. His shore appointments include current and future operations management in PJHQ (UK) and overseas tours with NATO in Naples and Brunssum. He has deployed extensively to Iraq and Afghanistan in a variety of roles and was the last NATO LO to the US Commander in Kabul in 2021.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 14 May, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Scaling Innovation in Defence – an agile approach

Blythe Crawford, RAF & SST-CCW

At a time when we face unparalleled security dilemmas and technology is evolving at a pace where we are challenged to keep up, Defence has been struggling with how to innovate successfully and deliver novel technologies into the hands of the end user at scale.  This seminar will examine from both a theoretical and practical perspective, how that might be achieved, taking lessons from recent conflict and the civilian sector.

Air Commodore Blythe Crawford recently served as the Commandant of the Air and Space Warfare Centre.  He spent some 15 years flying the Tornado F3 both in peacetime and on operations, while completing staff tours in NATO and the Pentagon.  During this time, he completed Masters degrees from Cambridge in International Relations, and Kings College, London, in Defence Studies.

He oversaw the transfer of Typhoon operations to RAF Lossiemouth from RAF Leuchars and deployed as Commander 121 Expeditionary Air Wing, leading OPERATION LUMINOUS, before deploying as XO to the Commanding General, 1st Infantry Division, in Baghdad on OPERATION INHERENT RESOLVE. Crawford was awarded an OBE in 2015. Within Joint Forces Command, he led the rollout of ‘Warfare in the Information Age’ and then returned to Washington as the interoperability lead for the Multi Domain Command and Control enterprise, before participating in the development of the USAF’s innovation strategy. 

Appointed Station Commander, RAF Leeming, he drove multiple transformation programmes including setting up the RAF’s first innovation hub, RAFX. He was awarded a CBE in 2021 before attending Higher Command and Staff College.  He is currently completing a Doctorate in Innovation, Technology and Strategy at Durham University, where he is also a Professor in Practice.  He is currently a visiting fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 30 April, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Conventional and Unconventional Deterrence from Ukraine to Taiwan: The Strategic Interactions of NATO, Russia, China, and the United States

Rob Johnson

Following a recent simulation of a scenario where there was a ‘failure of deterrence’, Rob Johnson examines the implications of recent geopolitical developments, asking how accurate our analyses are. He examines the challenges of critical evaluation in this period of change in the international situation and how urgent it is for scholars to develop a better understanding of escalation, deterrence, and coercion. He offers an assessment based on the interactions of recent policy trajectories, highlighting where there are threats and opportunities, and advocates a new approach to the study of strategic decision-making.

Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of SST-CCW and a Senior Research Fellow of Pembroke College, University of Oxford. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian Defence University Staff College and Adjunct Professor of Strategic Studies at Rennes School of Business in France. He is a historian, strategic studies and International Relations scholar combining academic analyses with ‘knowledge exchange’ policy impact.

Dr Johnson was the first Director of the UK Office of Net Assessment and Challenge, working closely with the Secretary of State for Defence, Ministers, and Cabinet Office. He continues to advise and delivers direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters. His bespoke advisory support is not limited to the United Kingdom, but is requested by governments and armed forces in the United States, Europe, and Australia. He is prominent within professional military education, as a member of the advisory panel of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, lecturer for the Royal College of Defence Studies, and as the director of ‘insight and understanding’ study days and workshops. His former military career involved innovations in counter-terrorism, counterinsurgency, and a clear understanding of the requirements and thinking of the armed services. He is specialist in military strategy, operations, military conceptual developments, and strategic decision making. 

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership and the NATO Alliance'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 5 March, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

General Hastings ‘Pug’ Ismay: Soldier, Statesman, Diplomat

Sir John Kiszely, SST-CCW

General Lord Ismay’s name is little known today, but he participated in, and was witness to, decision-making at the highest level of government, before, during and after the Second World War. Immediately prior to the outbreak of hostilities, he was Secretary of the Committee of Imperial Defence responsible for advising government on strategy and preparations for war. As wartime Chief Staff Officer to Prime Minister Winston Churchill, he became a close confidant and rarely left Churchill’s side, whether in Britain or abroad at international conferences. He was instrumental in conciliating the sometimes-fractious relationship between the Prime Minister and the Service Chiefs of Staff.

In 1947, Ismay went to India as Chief of Staff to the Viceroy, Lord Mountbatten, and was closely involved in the drama of Partition. As the first Secretary General of NATO from 1952 to 1957, he was instrumental in building the foundations of the Alliance and preserving its unity and cohesion at the height of the Cold War. He also played a central role in reshaping the higher management of defence in Britain, including the creation of the Ministry of Defence.

John Kiszely served in the British Army for forty years, including as Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff and Director General of the UK Defence Academy. He has been a visiting professor at King’s College London and visiting research fellow at SST:CCW.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership and the NATO Alliance'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 19 February, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Integrated Deterrence

Antulio Echevarria

Abstract to be posted shortly

Professor Antulio J. Echevarria II had a distinguished career in the US Army and is currently the Editor-in-Chief of the US Army War College Press, which includes Parameters. He is a graduate of the US Military Academy, the US Army Command and General Staff College, and the US Army War College. He holds a doctorate in modern history from Princeton University, and is the author of six books, including After Clausewitz (Kansas 2001), Imagining Future War (2007), Clausewitz and Contemporary War (Oxford 2007), Reconsidering the American Way of War (Georgetown 2014), Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford 2017), and War’s Logic: Strategic Thought and the American Way of War (Cambridge 2021) as well as more than one hundred articles and monographs on strategic thinking, military theory, and military history. He completed a NATO Fulbright Fellowship in 2000-01, and a Visiting Research Fellowship at Oxford University in 2011-12; he is a Senior Research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and an Adjunct Fellow at the Modern War Institute. He formerly held the US Army War College Elihu Root Chair of Military Studies.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

''Strategic Leadership and the NATO Alliance'' Seminar Series

Wednesday 22 January, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Title TBC

Viktorija Starych-Samuolienė and James Rogers, Council on Geostrategy

Abstract to be posted shortly

Viktorija Starych-Samuolienė is Co-founder at the Council on Geostrategy where she is responsible for the organisation’s strategy and growth. She is also a Fellow of the Durham Institute of Research, Development, and Invention (DIRDI). Her areas of research expertise and interests include Euro-Atlantic geopolitics, Eastern European and Baltic politics and security and maritime affairs. Her previous experience includes research and external affairs roles at the Henry Jackson Society. Viktorija has appeared multiple times in the national and international media and on broadcast television and is a regular attendee and speaker at British and international conferences on foreign policy and security issues. She holds an MA in Intelligence and International Security from King’s College, London, and a BA in Political Science from Vilnius University.

James Rogers is Co-founder and Director of Research at the Council on Geostrategy, where he specialises in geopolitics and British strategic policy. He has pioneered work on Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific connectivities and strategic advantage. Previously, he held a range of positions, including at the Baltic Defence College and the European Union Institute for Security Studies. He has been invited to give oral evidence at the Foreign Affairs, Defence, European Affairs, and International Development committees in the Houses of Parliament. He holds an MPhil in Contemporary European Studies from the University of Cambridge and an award-winning BSc Econ (Hons) in International Politics and Strategic Studies from the University of Wales, Aberystwyth.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Strategic leadership Seminar Series

Wednesday 27 November, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Rethinking Non-State Armed Groups: Youth, Agency, and Pathways to Sustainable Peace

Yosuke Nagai, SST- CCW Visiting Fellow

This seminar offers a fresh perspective on the roles and potential of youth within non-state armed groups, exploring both micro-level dynamics and broader implications for global peacebuilding. Based on field experiences across regions like Somalia, Yemen, Kenya, Indonesia, and Colombia, combined with insights from recent research, the presentation will challenge traditional narratives surrounding non-state armed groups and youth associated with non-state armed groups (YANSAG). By examining the complex identities and unique capacities of young disengaged combatants, this session will consider how their reintegration can contribute to sustainable peace. Emphasis will also be placed on how macro-level strategies and frameworks, including international policies and normative shifts, can better support the disengagement, reintegration and empowerment of these youth, moving beyond conventional conflict resolution approaches to foster long-term stability.

Dr Yosuke Nagai is the Executive Director of Accept International and the Founder of the Global Taskforce for Youth Combatants. He has been dedicated to mainly implementing deradicalization, reintegration, and rehabilitation programs for defectors, prisoners, and detainees from non-state armed groups, particularly those involved in violent extremism, in regions such as Somalia, Yemen, Kenya, Indonesia, and Colombia. Currently, as a visiting fellow at the Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology: Changing Character of War Centre at the University of Oxford, Dr Nagai is researching the impact of narratives that empower disengaged combatants as agents of peace.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Strategic leadership Seminar Series

Wednesday 13 November, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

At the Frontline: Defence, Media and Leadership

Deborah Haynes

Deborah is Sky News' security and defence editor. She covers the biggest foreign stories around the world and carries out her own investigations. She has reported from Europe on Brexit the United States on Donald Trump, and broken stories on suspected Russian disinformation operations and suspected cyber attacks in the UK.

Before joining Sky, she was defence editor and previously Iraq correspondent at The Times. She covered wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, as well as focusing on armed forces issues in the UK, including exposing the true extent of a funding crisis within the UK's military.

She won the Amnesty International award for national newspaper human rights reporting in 2008 for a series on the plight of Iraqi interpreters working for UK forces in Iraq.

This series also won Deborah the inaugural Bevins Prize for investigative journalism in 2008.

Prior to joining The Times, Deborah worked for the Reuters news agency after six years at AFP in Tokyo, Geneva, Baghdad and London.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Strategic leadership Seminar Series

Wednesday 30 October, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Leading AUKUS: the UK perspective on the Australian, UK, United States strategic alignment for Indo-Pacific Defence and Security

Anne Marie Trevelyan

Anne-Marie Trevelyan was the Minister of State for AUKUS in His Majesty’s Government and this is her account of the multiple benefits of the new strategic alignment for the three powers. She lays out the domestic UK advantages this initiative is producing, and has the potential to produce in the future, for the regeneration of the North-East of England, technological acceleration for UK businesses, and a new era of deterrence against aggression in the region which is such an important strategic and commercial partner for the UK.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Strategic leadership Seminar Series

Wednesday 16 October, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Strategic Leadership through the prisms of the UK Defence-UK Science-UK Industry relationship, the SDR & AUKUS.

Dr Carl Hunter

In this seminar, Professor Carl Stephen Patrick Hunter OBE will discuss strategic leadership through the prism of the UK Defence-UK Science-UK Industry relationship. He will address how UK Industry and UK Science can help the United Kingdom meet its defence and security objectives and how UK Defence-UK Science-UK Industry relationship can secure the most comprehensive possible defence enterprise.

In this complex geopolitical context, we are at a  “near-war AUKUS” age. We face adversarial state threats from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea and significant global threats such as corruption, terrorism, the growth of “ungoverned space”, a distortion of International Standards, water vulnerability, health and new pandemic risks. A National Strategy must be formulated and implemented to alleviate and address them from  a health, wealth and security perspective.

Defence and Security are 2 of the 4 public service capabilities, alongside Diplomacy and Development, and mirrored by the 4 private sector capabilities of Trade, Finance, the Intellectual & Scientific and the Cultural. It is only when all 8 of the UK’s core capabilities are aligned and their interdependence understood that the UK’s most intractable problems can be identified at home and overseas. UK Science, and UK Industry must work in tandem with UK Defence and UK Security to make the next 75 years the gift that it should be for our future generations.

Dr Carl Hunter is Chairman of Coltraco Ultrasonics, a high-exporting advanced manufacturer, Director-General of the Durham Institute of Research, Development & Invention (DIRDI), Director of the Centre of Underwater Acoustic Analysis (CUAA), Professor-in-Practice at Durham University, and Chairman of the Council on Geostrategy Forum. Carl has long leadership experience in the aerospace, marine, energy, manufacturing, scientific, geostrategic and defence sectors and is committed to the development of a national strategy as part of a public service-led national, shared endeavour. Experienced in the private and public sectors, and a former Green Jacket Officer, Coltraco Ultrasonics focuses on ultrasound, acoustics, electro-magnetism and information engineering and has twice-won the Queen’s Award for Enterprise in 2019 and 2022. Their instrumentation is aboard 20% of the world’s shipping fleet, leading allied Navies and across offshore energy. Earlier in his career, Carl was Managing Director International Markets for TIMCO Aviation Services in NC USA, becoming the largest independent aircraft engineering maintenance, repair and overhaul organisation in the world. Prior to that he was Senior Advisor International Markets to United Airlines/United Services, San Francisco CA USA, the largest B777/B747-400 wide-body and PW4090 aircraft engine operator in the world.

During COVID19 he was a member of the UK Government’s COVID19 Economic Recovery Taskforce. His company did not place anyone into furlough, instead establishing a new laboratory, co-located with the Centre for Advanced Instrumentation, part of the Department of Physics, Durham University. They developed via Innovate UK the first instrument to be able to check that negatively pressurised ICU Wards in NHS Hospitals were containing infection rather than spreading COVID19 into the rest of the hospital, which has since developed into the world’s most accurate instrument in the Built Environment to monitor building airtightness and energy loss. He advises several UK Government departments including as co-Chair of External Engagement to Director SONAC at the MoD 2022-24, where he supports Director Defence Innovation and Director UKDSE. He contributed to the Integrated Review in modest external engagement at No10.Carl is a Visiting Fellow of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre, an Honorary Fellow of the Strategy Statecraft Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre, at Pembroke College, Oxford and a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society, The Royal Institution of Naval Architects and The Institute of Marine Engineering, Science & Technology. He holds an Honorary Doctorate in Science from Durham University and Durham University Senate’s highest Dunelmensis Award, for his contribution to undergraduate development and scientific research. His research institute aims to be a strategic, nationally significant, “Ideas Factory”, bridging private sector capabilities to a public service-led scientific and geopolitical research ethos, aiming to identify and support the “Next Newton” and future UK Nobel Prize winners over 20-year periods. The CUAA is his “gift to the nation” and specifically to the Royal Navy. DIRDI consists of 325 senior academics and geo-strategists at Professor and Associate Professor level, from the Universities of Durham, Cambridge, Oxford, Imperial College, University College and Kings College London. Carl was recently honoured with the OBE.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 5 June, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Cultural Bridges and Cold War Alliances: Lessons from the GDR’s Diplomatic Dance with Japan

Dr Bethan Winter, Oxford

As countries of strategic importance on opposing sides of the Cold War divide, the domestic and foreign policies of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Japan were expected to align closely with those of their respective superpower hegemons. At the same time, West Germany’s Hallstein Doctrine threatened to cut ties with any country that recognized the GDR as a legitimate state, severely restricting East Germany from establishing diplomatic relationships with states outside of the Soviet sphere of influence. Yet, despite these seemingly impermeable geopolitical barriers, the GDR and Japan managed to forge a mutually-beneficial relationship through the use of culture.

This talk will explore both top-down government initiatives and grassroots interactions between the GDR and Japan, illustrating how culture—whether through deliberate soft power strategies or through ‘incidental’ diplomatic exchanges—can play a pivotal role in bridging divides even in the most polarized global contexts.

Bethan Winters is a social and cultural historian of the Cold War, specialising in the German Democratic Republic and its international relations. Bethan is currently a Lecturer in Music at Magdalen College, Oxford, where she was previously a Lecturer in History. She teaches across the music, history, and politics departments.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 22 May, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Mythbusting the Politics of War: How Presidents Manage the Political Costs of Civilian Control

Dr Andrew Payne, City, University of London

Abstract will be posted shortly.

Andrew Payne is a Lecturer in Foreign Policy and Security at City, University of London, and a Research Associate at the University of Oxford, where he was previously the Hedley Bull Research Fellow in International Relations. His research examines the influence of domestic politics on US foreign policy, military strategy and civil-military relations. His first book, War on the Ballot: How the Election Cycle Shapes Presidential Decision-Making in War, was published by Columbia University Press in July 2023. His work has been published in several peer-reviewed journals, including International Security, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Politics, and Contemporary Politics. His writing has also appeared in The Washington Post, The Sunday Times, The Conversation, and International Affairs. In addition to his academic work, Andrew serves on the board of the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 8 May, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Economic statecraft from the perspective of systemic influence

Maria de Goeij Reid, CCW

Hybrid Meeting: Join through Microsoft Teams

Economic statecraft is often talked about, but relatively poorly understood; the topic finds itself somewhere in the somewhat awkward space between economics and international relations, and often also somewhere in between ‘war’ and ‘peace’. It is often too simplistically labelled as being a weak and ineffective substitute for ‘real’ action. In this seminar Maria will approach the topic from the perspective of complexity and influence, shedding light on how to analyse the strategic utility of economic statecraft in its appropriate context.

Maria de Goeij Reid is a senior associate at the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University. Before joining the CCW centre Maria led a team of intelligence analysts at TRSSI, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters. She has been working as a consultant and advisor in both the public and private sector.

Her latest publication on the topic of complex adaptive systems and the analysis and influence of strategic behaviour be found here:  https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss4/14/ . She is currently working on a book chapter about economic statecraft from the perspective of systemic influence.

Maria has a BA degree in European Studies from The Hague University and an MSc degree in Crisis and Security Management from Leiden University. 

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 24 April, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Weaponized Interdependence: International Monopolies as Determinants of State Power

Dr Claas Mertens, Blavatnik School of Goverment

Recent weaponized interdependence research has focused on mapping international economic structures to explain states’ capacity to inflict costs on foreign actors. This paper proposes a different approach that integrates weaponized interdependence research with microeconomic concepts of substitution. If an international economic exchange is restricted, actors on either end turn to the best available alternative. Substitution costs describe the utility loss actors incur when doing so. The extent of these costs determines whether either side can ‘weaponize’ the exchange. Monopolies and monopsonies are instances where buyers and sellers face high substitution costs as they lack alternatives. The theory delineates three determinants each for international monopolies and monopsonies, offering a nuanced understanding of why states can weaponize the economic exchanges of some market actors but not others. Various cases illustrate the theory, drawing on in-depth interviews. For instance, the cases contrast the know-how and intellectual property underlying technological monopolies in semiconductor production with the international network effects that bolster several monopolies in the realm of international finance. The developed theory reframes and refines the weaponized interdependence discourse and has important implications for policymakers’ ongoing efforts to ‘de-risk’ international economic exchanges without comprehensively ‘decoupling’ them.

Claas Mertens is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Net Zero Governance systems. His research focuses on the international political economy of climate change and international economic conflicts, such as economic sanctions and weaponised interdependencies. It also explores intersections between these two areas. His work is published or forthcoming in International Studies Quarterly and The Review of International Organisations.

Before joining the Blavatnik School, Claas was a DPhil student in International Relations at Oxford University’s Department for Politics and International Relations. He also holds an MPhil in Politics from Oxford and a BA in Business from the University of St. Gallen and was a visiting student at Harvard. Before his DPhil, he worked as a management consultant. Claas was Rowing World Champion in 2015 and represented Oxford in the 2018 Oxford-Cambridge Boat Race. Now, he enjoys surfing, where his passion far exceeds his skills.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 28 February, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Strategic Wishes and What Happens Next: Assessing the UK's Integrated Reviews

Dr Maeve Ryan, KCL, & Professor Jamie Gaskarth, Open University 

In the aftermath of the 2019 election, the Boris Johnson government promised "the most radical assessment of the UK’s place in the world since the end of the Cold War.” The result was the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, published in March 2021 and updated in March 2023 by the Integrated Review “Refresh”. This paper aims to evaluate how far these texts achieved their aims so far, and with what consequences British strategic policy. It begins by exploring the contexts of the reviews, how previous iterations informed the framing, approach, evidencing and rationale, and what innovations were introduced. It then engages in a detailed investigation into how these reviews were implemented across government. In the process, we consider what the IR process suggests about the relationship between grand strategic concepts, grand strategic practice, and measuring success in real time.

Dr Maeve Ryan is a Reader in History and Foreign Policy at the Dept. Of War Studies, King’s College London, and the co-founder and co-director of the Centre for Grand Strategy and the Ax:son Johnson Institute for Statecraft and Diplomacy. 

Prof Jamie Gaskarth is Professor of Foreign Policy and International Relations at The Open University and co-Editor in Chief of Journal of Global Security Studies

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 14 February, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

'Bury them deep in the ground'; The disastrous legacies of 'expeditionary warfare', 'intervention', and 'counterinsurgency' 

Frank Ledwidge, University of Portsmouth

For much of the last forty years 'expeditionary warfare' in one form or another (e.g., humanitarian intervention, 'CT', counterinsurgency), has formed the key mission of the US, UK, and other European armed forces. These have been supported by ideas such as 'new wars' or 'wars amongst the people'.  From these ideas have flowed failed counterinsurgencies and various dubiously legal 'forever wars' being fought even now in states ruined by such 'interventions'. Their legacy has been strategic disaster and the immiseration of millions.

In whatever form, these expeditions are doomed to failure, not least because they invariably lack adequate preparation, resources, knowledge or strategic grounding. More simply, 'intervention' amounts in practical terms to 'invasion' which is rarely welcomed, to say the least. These ideas stagger on today in forms such as (for the UK) 'persistent campaigning'. The very structures of some major armed forces - designed explicitly around 'expeditionary operations' - have become highly distorted and unfit for their supposed function of national defence. We are all less secure as a consequence. 

Frank Ledwidge is senior lecturer in war studies at the University of Portsmouth, working primarily with the Royal Air Force. He is the author of 'Losing Small Wars' (Yale 2011/17), 'Investment in Blood' (Yale 2013), and 'Aerial Warfare' (Oxford 2018/20). He served as a military intelligence officer in Bosnia and Iraq and as a civilian advisor in (inter alia) Afghanistan, Libya, and Ukraine.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 31 January, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Closed Deal: Private Authority of Companies in Cyber Conflict and Crises

Louise Marie Hurel, London School of Economics and RUSI

The Russo-Ukrainian War has raised significant questions about not only the role of cyber operations in conflict but also the measure of private sector engagement and participation in these contexts. But neither is Ukraine the only testing ground, nor is the presence and gap-filling of private companies in conflict and crises new. This lecture will explore the antecedents, enablers and recent examples of how companies have sought to legitimize and expand their presence in providing cybersecurity in conflict and crises. 

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 17 January, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Mass and Multipolarity: Qualitative and Quantitative Balancing after Western Hegemony  

Dr David Blagden, University of Exeter

The international system is returning to multipolarity—a situation of multiple competing major powers—drawing the post-Cold War ‘unipolar moment’ of comprehensive US-led Western political, economic, and military dominance to an end. The rise of China, belligerent assertiveness of Russia, and associated return of multipolarity at the systemic level in turn carry implications for European states’ strategic posture, including that of the UK. In particular, the techno-utopian hope that Britain can achieve its balancing needs through qualitative advantage alone, without significant bolstering of the UK’s quantitative resilience, risks exposure in a world of adversaries capable of their own strategic adaptation and innovation.  

David Blagden is Senior Lecturer in International Security at the University of Exeter. He was previously the Adrian Research Fellow in International Politics at Darwin College, University of Cambridge. His research has been published in International Security, International Studies Quarterly, the European Journal of International Relations, Security Studies, International Affairs, Survival, and Foreign Policy Analysis, among other outlets; he has also provided public commentary for the BBC, The Guardian, The Spectator, the New Statesman, and other media. On the policy side, Dr Blagden has served as Specialist Adviser to a Parliamentary Select Committee as well as consulting for several UK Government departments and agencies. He is also an officer in the Royal Naval Reserve, and has served at sea and ashore with a number of UK and NATO warships and headquarters. He obtained his BA (Philosophy, Politics, and Economics) and DPhil (International Relations) from the University of Oxford, and his MA (International Relations) from the University of Chicago.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 22 November, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Assessing the Bear: Overestimating the Russian Military

Dr Andrew Bowen, Congressional Research Service

Prior to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, analysts predicted a quick and decisive victory for Russia over Ukraine due the Russian military benefiting from a long and sustained modernization program. It soon became clear that analysts' projections of a quick and decisive victory for Russia were shockingly incorrect. Why was the perception of the Russian military so divergent from its performance in the Ukraine war and why were assessments of the Russian military apparently so inaccurate? Rather than a total analytical failure, however, the answers to these questions aren't so different from other historical examples of inaccurate military performance assessments. In part, analysts failed to adequately appreciate the political context and influence on Russian military operations and an inflated focus on technology and modern equipment. Understanding this case and the factors which contributed to overestimating the Russian military’s performance in Ukraine provide crucial insights into better assessing future dangers and conflicts. 

Andrew Bowen is an Analyst in Russian and European Affairs at the Congressional Research Service (CRS) covering Russian and Ukrainian military and intelligence issues. He has a Ph.D. from Boston College in International Relations and a Masters in Global Affairs from New York University. 

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 8 November, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Fashions and Fallacies in Contemporary Strategic Thought 

Dr Chiara Libiseller, Leiden University

Every few years a new concept captures the attention of a large part of the strategic studies community. These buzzwords – such as hybrid warfare, grey zone conflict, counterinsurgency or the revolution in military affairs – are both ambiguous and powerful, sparking a wave of publications only to eventually be superseded by the next buzzword. How can we explain this recurring cycle? This talk looks at the dynamics and underlying ideas about war driving this process. It argues that these buzzwords are the outcome of fallacies inherent in much current strategic thinking in the West. 

Dr Chiara Libiseller is a lecturer at the Institute for History at Leiden University and a deputy editor of the Journal of Strategic Studies. She obtained her PhD from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, having written her thesis on ‘The Rise and Fall of Fashionable Concepts in Strategic Studies’. Her most recent output, entitled ‘“Hybrid warfare” as an academic fashion’ was published in the Journal of Strategic Studies. 

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 25 October, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Strategy, surprise and false futurism

Professor Alexander Evans

Given the return of Great Power Competition, could democratic governments have been better at anticipatory policymaking? Have weapons of mass distraction diverted attention from the persistent challenge of war?  To what extent has a self-referential fascination with ourselves, our universalism and challenges to it from within (like radicalisation) diminished our ability to read the prevailing winds of how most states read the world? Have the twin conceits of cultural narcissism and presentism diminished the ability of major democracies to navigate a volatile world?  If lessons are learned from the false futurism of the past, there are ways in which a more robust capability could be fostered in government. To do so, we need to revalorise concepts of biography, radical uncertainty and longitudinal policy-making – none of which are fashionable or prioritised.

Alexander Evans is a Professor in Practice in Public Policy at the London School of Economics.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 11 October, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Out of the Shadows: The Shock of Non-Hybrid War

Professor Patrick Porter, University of Birmingham

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent attritional war has upended pre-war assumptions about "future war." Futurologists within the broad security penumbra increasingly argued that conflict was becoming hybrid, ambiguous and shadowy, with some arguing that the tools and assumptions of major war were becoming obsolete. While all wars to some degree are "hybrid", the unambiguous, industrial-scale clash in Ukraine is emphatically not what they expected. Why did bright minds fall prey to such expectations? The failure had several causes. One of them is an intellectual failure, either to assume war's form was determined by the tools of globalisation, thereby losing sight of war's political essence, or to assume that the conditions of the unipolar era would endure. This delusion has not gone away, however, and has implications for how we prepare for future conflicts.

 Patrick Porter is Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Wednesday 7 June, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Multinational Coalition Warfare and the Anglo-American Experiment in the Mediterranean, 1942–43

Carson Teuscher, Ohio State University

The origins of modern US-UK-led coalition warfare trace back to the Mediterranean theater of World War II. It was there on the treacherous battlefields of North Africa, Sicily, and Italy where Anglo-American forces learned to harmonize their fighting efforts under a modular and largely experimental integrated headquarters for the first time. Overcoming significant battlefield setbacks between 1942 and 1943, the Allies slowly forged a model for waging effective multinational coalition warfare, one centered on the principles of unity of command, combined operations, partner integration, expeditionary capacity, and robust liaison and logistics support. These pioneering efforts constituted nothing less than an embryonic Allied victory template, one they would export wholesale to great effect in Northwestern Europe and whose legacy lives on to this day.

Carson Teuscher is a Ph.D. Candidate in Military History at Ohio State University. His research focuses on the history of coalition warfare, alliance building, and multinational military operations during World War II. He was previously a non-resident Hans J. Morgenthau fellow in Grand Strategy at the University of Notre Dame and currently holds a World Politics and Statecraft Fellowship from the Smith Richardson Foundation.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Wednesday 24 May, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

BRUSA: Wartime Conception and Formative Conduct, 1940-43

Dr John Jenner, KCL

“[T]o all intents and purposes US security is being run for them at the President’s request by the British. A British officer sits in Washington with Mr Edgar Hoover [Director FBI] and [Colonel] Bill Donovan [Coordinator of Information] for this purpose and reports regularly to the President. It is of course essential that this fact should not become known in view of the furious uproar it would cause if known to the Isolationists.”

Major Desmond Morton [PM Churchill’s personal secretary for intelligence liaison]

Conceived by Churchill in the desperate spring of 1940 and delivered covertly by MI6, the birth of the Anglo-American intelligence alliance was formalised on 17 May 1943 in the “Britain-United States of America Agreement” (BRUSA). When Churchill became prime minister in May 1940, Britain’s intelligence services found their American counterparts divided and unfit for purpose. Between the wars, the Government Code and Cipher School (GCCS) stole more official secrets from the United States than any other country. Relative to Roosevelt, GCCS’ greatest consumer was by far the better informed suitor during the Anglo-American courtship. In Churchill’s eyes a predominantly isolationist Washington appeared complacently incapable of properly perceiving the existential threat that Nazi Germany posed to America’s and Britain’s eternal interests. As France fell, Britain’s beleaguered new prime minister struggled to secure the nation’s immediate survival and a corollary long-term Allied victory by realising his governing policy objective: the formation of a warfighting alliance with the United States. Informed by GCCS and MI6 covert operations, Churchill adroitly deployed actionable intelligence to lubricate his existential relationship with Roosevelt, engender an Anglophile American central intelligence service, and unify the United States’ disjointed cryptographic services in common cause with GCCS. Against the odds, he succeeded in creating an “unparalleled” security alliance.

Dr John Jenner is Senior Fellow, University of Oxford Rothermere American Institute; Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London; Director, Bounding Power in the Island Chains, University of Oxford - Office of Naval Research. He holds Master of Studies and Doctor of Philosophy degrees in Modern History from Oxford, and held various academic appointments in Asia, Europe, and the USA. Before his election as Senior Fellow at Oxford he was a First Sea Lord Fellow; Research and Teaching Fellow, Joint Services Command and Staff College, Shrivenham; and Visiting Research Fellow, University of Cambridge.

In addition to his academic work, John undertakes governmental analytical assignments for policy makers in Whitehall, Washington, and elsewhere including the Indo-Pacific Brief. His current research focuses on U.S.-China strategic engagements in the Indo-Pacific since the Treaty of Shimonoseki (1895).

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.