Dr Rob Johnson has shared his latest research in an interview with Sky News. Rob has analysed the warning signs of previous conflicts and created a list of 80 indicators that could be used to measure likelihood of war.
Countries that are planning military action typically need time to ready not just their armed forces but their industrial base, economy and population. The timescale for some preparations can be up to 20 years, while deploying troops, medical units, and especially bloodbanks, can indicate an attack can be expected within days.
Using his model, Rob shows that we are in a period of high threat and that further outbreaks of conflict are likely.
Rob shared his draft model in a CCW seminar in Hilary Term and received positive feedback from Oxford colleagues.
