Between the No Limits Partnership: The Impact of the Ukraine Conflict on Sino-Russian Entente in Central Asia
Philip Reid
While its precise origin might be argued with respect to any point in the post-Soviet period, from the middle of the last decade, a strategic entente of sorts between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation, has been widely acknowledged in academic studies and media. Presenting a politically-unified Eurasia, has become an important element of Chinese diplomacy vis-à-vis the United States and refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of the Ukraine in February 2022 has placed Beijing in the global minority. For a number of reasons, Central Asia may be considered a bell-weather for the bilateral relationship. It was the demarcation and demilitarization of China’s borders with the newly-established Russian Federation and three Central Asian Republics, that lead to the institutionalization of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China’s most successful multilateral project to date. These 'borderlands' are again attracting attention due to the vital role they are playing in facilitating shipments of industrial inputs sustaining the Russian war economy. A narrative has emerged however suggesting an accelerated displacement of Russian by Chinese influence in Central Asia by comparison with the 2010s, when an equilibrium between the two powers' security and economic interests, had been posited by observers. This appears to have received considerable amplification following the convening of an inaugural summit in May 2023, between Xi Jinping and the five Central Asian heads of state. The following sections will examine the observable trends in the relations of both countries with the five Central Asian Republics since February 2022, and weigh the accuracy of the suggestion that, in this strategically-important geographical region, Beijing has benefited from the conflict, at Moscow’s expense.
Philip Reid held a Visiting Research Fellowship at CCW in 2021-22. His contemporary research encompasses Chinese Foreign and Defence Policy, including People’s Liberation Army (PLA) doctrine and force development, and China’s use of Private Security Companies (PSCs) in Central Asia. Philip recently served as a MOD Regional Adviser on China and Central Asia, and his sixteen-year service career saw near-continuous deployment to Afghanistan. Philip is presently a Visiting Research Fellow with the Centre for Historical Analyses and Conflict Research (CHACR) and has held fellowships and residencies with the Kazakh National Defence University (KNDU), the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom (DAUK), the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in New Delhi and the OSCE Academy in Bishkek. Philip speaks Russian and Persian, and read Classical Persian Literature for his MA.
