Systematic Failure: Article on Afghanistan by Rob Johnson

Systematic Failure: Afghanistan Endgame

Dr Rob Johnson

The rapid collapse of the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan provoked a welter of think tank analyses, political recriminations, and breathless media coverage, with responsibility pinned either onto the hasty manner of the United States’ withdrawal, faulty intelligence, or the alleged inadequacy of the Afghan security forces. Regardless of these assessments, the events in Afghanistan constitute a systemic failure. But it was avoidable….

Influencing the United States: is the game worth the candle for junior allies? by Will James

Dr William James has published an article with International Politics

Influencing the United States: is the game worth the candle for junior allies?

Abstract: How do junior allies seek to leverage US foreign policy to their advantage? In ‘The Big Influence of Small Allies’, Robert Keohane delineated the tactics that these states employ. Fifty years on, this paper updates and modifies Keohane’s influential article. It offers a framework for analysing the different influencing tactics: (1) bargaining; (2) direct, indirect and diaspora lobbying; and (3) political and institutional bonding. Unlike Keohane’s article, which examined influence from an American perspective, this paper explores the concept from the vantage point of junior allies. It concludes by considering avenues for future research. The paper not only contributes to the academic literature on US alliances and the concept of influence, but the findings are also pertinent to policymakers. The article demonstrates the potential benefits and drawbacks of different influencing tactics so that junior allies are clear-eyed about the promise and the pitfalls of influencing US foreign policy.

Routledge Handbook of U.S. Counterterrorism and Irregular Warfare Operations

De Rob Johnson has written a chapter in The Routledge Handbook of U.S. Counterterrorism and Irregular Warfare Operations, Edited By Michael A Sheehan, Erich Marquardt and Liam Collins, Routledge, 2021.

Rob’s chapter is titled: “The Taliban and the Modern History of Afghanistan”.

This handbook comprises essays by leading scholars and practitioners on the topic of U.S. counterterrorism and irregular warfare campaigns and operations around the globe. Terrorist groups have evolved substantially since 9/11, with the Islamic State often described as a pseudo-state, a terrorist group, and insurgency all at the same time. While researchers', analysts', and policymakers’ understanding of terrorism has grown immensely over the past two decades, similar advancements in the understanding of counterterrorism lag. As such, this handbook explains why it is necessary to take a broader view of counterterrorism which can, and often does, include irregular warfare.

The Open Access version of this book is available.

"Russia’s Understanding of War" by Andrew Foxall

Changing Character of Russia’s Understanding of War: Policy Implications for the UK and Its Allies

Dr Andrew Foxall has published a new article though CCW.

Russia’s current leaders believe their country is at war with the Euro-Atlantic, whether the countries of the Euro-Atlantic recognise this or not. This belief is deep-seated and reflects an incompatibility between how Russia views the world and how the countries of the Euro-Atlantic view the world. It is this belief that drives Russia’s hostile actions across a range of domains -including in cyberspace, in disinformation campaigns, in assassinations of its own citizens as well as foreign citizens abroad, and in attempts to destabilise countries.

CCW recognised by DPIR Impact Award

Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR) has recognised the work of Dr Rob Johnson and Dr Annette Idler.

The new DPIR Impact Awards celebrate how research in Politics and International Relations make a difference beyond academia. Two prize categories recognise ‘Impact Leaders’ and ‘Achieving Impact’.

The Impact Leader Award recognises a significant track record of achieving impact or a commitment to collaboration and engaged research.

CCW’s  Rob Johnson and Annette Idler are both winners in the Impact Leader award. Dr Johnson’s research project has created impact included helping to influence strategic defence education and providing analysis and tools to aid military forces in working with local actors. Dr Idler’s research has helped enhance responses to insecurity and conflict across the globe as her Conflict Platform tool is now embedded in UN practice. It has also helped inform the Colombian government’s strategy for peace in the nation’s unstable borderland regions.

The biennial awards are part of the Department’s efforts to profile impact and recognise the investment of researchers in impact activities, with each category prize fund totalling £1,000. Applications were reviewed by the Research Support Team, Research Director, Head of Department and four other reviewers including Aileen Marshall-Brown - the Social Science Division's Senior Research Impact Facilitator.

New edited volume from Rob Johnson: The World Information War

A new book edited by Robert Johnson and Tim Clack wil be published on 11 May. “The World Information War: Western Resilience, Campaigning, and Cognitive Effects” is published by Routledge. The book includes a chapter by Dr Johnson on “Information warfare: theory to practice”

This book outlines the threats from information warfare faced by the West and analyses the ways it can defend itself. Existing on a spectrum from communication to indoctrination, information can be used to undermine trust, amplify emotional resonance, and reformulate identities. The West is currently experiencing an information war, and major setbacks have included: ‘fake news’; disinformation campaigns; the manipulation of users of social media; the dissonance of hybrid warfare; and even accusations of ‘state capture’. Nevertheless, the West has begun to comprehend the reality of what is happening, and it is now in a position defend itself. In this volume, scholars, information practitioners, and military professionals define this new war and analyse its shape, scope, and direction. Collectively, they indicate how media policies, including social media, represent a form of information strategy, how information has become the ‘centre of gravity’ of operations, and why the further exploitation of data (by scale and content) by adversaries can be anticipated. For the West, being first with the truth, being skilled in cyber defence, and demonstrating virtuosity in information management are central to resilience and success.

20% Discount Available - enter code FLY21 at checkout. Code expires on 31 August 2021

Russia's Worldview by Andrew Foxall

It has been apparent since 2014, if not before, that Russia’s current leadership views the world in terms that are very different to those familiar to us in the Euro-Atlantic more than twenty-five years after the end of the Soviet Union. Seen from the Kremlin, the post-Cold War international system is illegitimate and unfair, and has been forced on the world by the West. This view was articulated most clearly in Vladimir Putin’s speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, and has only been reinforced by events since then.

Dr Andrew Foxall is Senior Research Fellow in Russian Strategy at the Changing Character of War (CCW) Centre at the University of Oxford. Between 2013 and 2020, he was Director of the Russia and Eurasia Studies Centre at the Henry Jackson Society. Before that, he held academic positions at Queen’s University Belfast and the University of Oxford. He holds a DPhil from the University of Oxford.

Will James article published with RUSI: "Between a Pandemic and a Hard Brexit"

William James’s article 'Between a pandemic and a hard Brexit: grand strategic thinking in an age of nationalism, renewed geopolitical competition and human insecurity', has been published in the RUSI Journal.

This essay was awarded first prize in RUSI's annual Trench Gascoigne prize.

Ministers have pledged that the UK’s Integrated Review will be driven by external threats, rather than financial pressures. This would be refreshing, but a renewed focus on ‘the other’ should not come at the expense of self-evaluation. Strategy, grand or otherwise, is about making choices. Prioritising threats is difficult without an understanding of one’s internal capabilities and vulnerabilities. In this essay, which was awarded the 2020 Trench Gascoigne Prize, William D James considers the UK’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as its external environment, in the early 2020s. The analysis suggests that some external threats would be less concerning if domestic frailties were first addressed.

Will James on Britain's 'East of Suez' Basing Strategy

William James’ article, "There and Back Again: The Fall and Rise of Britain's 'East of Suez' Basing Strategy", was published yesterday by War on the Rocks.

The essay examines the causes of the UK’s withdrawal from its major bases in the Arabian Peninsula & Southeast Asia midway through the Cold War. It also draws out the lessons for current policymakers in London who are charting a "return" East of Suez.

Many of the ideas & findings in the essay are explored at greater length in Will’s recent article for the European Journal of International Security: "Global Britain's strategic problem East of Suez". 

"Winning Wars" published with chapter from Rob Johnson

In December 2020, the volume Winning Wars was published in the US through Casemate, and it is due to be published in the UK next month. Rob Johnson contributed a chapter: ‘'Winning’' in the World Wars. The British Conception of the War-Time Leaders David Lloyd George and Winston Churchill, 1914–1945 

Former CCW Director, Sir Hew Strachan wrote the introduction.

CCW book shortlisted for British Army Military Book of the Year

“Lawrence of Arabia on War: The Campaign in the Desert 1916-18” by Dr Robert Johnson has been shortlisted for the British Army Military Book of the Year (BAMBY) prize.

BAMBY is a prestigious book prize, judged by a diverse panel of officers and soldiers, representing the very best military books of the previous year. BAMBY is now in its 14th year and previous winners have included the Late Lord Ashdown, Professor Andrew Roberts, and Dr Aimée Fox.

The other books on the shortlist are:

Brig (Ret’d) Ben Barry – Blood, Metal, and Dust: How Victory turned to Defeat in Afghanistan and Iraq

Prof Saul David – Crucible of Hell: Okinawa: The Last Great Battle of the Second World War

James Holland – Sicily ’43 – The First Assault on Fortress Europe 

Professor David Kilcullen – The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West

Professor Margaret MacMillan – War: How Conflict Shaped Us

Dr Julie Wheelwright – Sister’s in Arms: Female Warriors from Antiquity to the New Millenium

‘Once again, seven excellent books have been chosen for this year’s BAMBY and the challenge has been laid before our soldiers to engage with writing on the profession of arms, our people are our key advantage and developing them should be our central goal.’

-WO2 Paul Barnes

New book: Military Strategy in the 21st Century: The Challenge for NATO

Rob Johnson has edited a new volume together with Janne Haaland Matlary. Military Strategy in the 21st Century: The Challenge for NATO was published with Hurst in December 2020.

What is military strategy today? In an era when European states seek to de-escalate and avoid armed conflict, and where politicians fear the consequences of protracted operations or tactical hazards, does military strategy have any relevance?

This is the first volume to examine current military risks and threats for NATO from a military strategy vantage point. Which strategies are needed? Is ways—ends—means thinking possible as a strategic template today? The contributors probe the relative importance, utility and options of military strategy across NATO as it confronts a variety of challenges old and new, as hybrid threats, new nuclear risks and conventional force combine in complex ways. They also examine what military strategy and military integration really mean, when NATO’s multilateral framework is being weakened by degrees of self-interest. They analyse the USA’s political and military role in Europe, and assess military strategic responses to Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Middle East. Moreover, they study the role of member states’ military strategy set against Article 5 and non-Article 5 risks and threats, and explore how European states devise and implement military strategic options. This book makes a clear assessment of political level strategy and its implications for military integration.

A sobering and stimulating set of essays which remind us of the importance of military strategy and the difficulty of getting politicians to think strategically. The authors take aim at some dangerous misconceptions which, unless addressed, will continue to weaken the Western alliance.’ — Christopher Coker, Department of International Relations, London School of Economics, and author of The Improbable War: China, the United States and the Logic of Great Power Conflict

Janne Haaland Matlary is Professor of International Politics at the University of Oslo and the Norwegian Military Command and Staff College; she was formerly Norway's deputy minister of foreign affairs. CCW was pleased to host her as a Visiting Research Fellow.

"Global Britain's strategic problem East of Suez" published in EJIS

William James has published an article in the European Journal of International Security. The essay entitled ‘'Global Britain's strategic problem East of Suez” formed the basis of the CCW seminar which Will presented last term.

Why did Britain withdraw from its military bases in the Arabian Peninsula and Southeast Asia midway through the Cold War? Existing accounts tend to focus on Britain's weak economic position, as well as the domestic political incentives of retrenchment for the ruling Labour Party. This article offers an alternative explanation: the strategic rationale for retaining a permanent presence East of Suez dissolved during the 1960s, as policymakers realised that these military bases were consuming more security than they could generate. These findings have resonance for British officials charting a return East of Suez today under the banner of ‘Global Britain’.

William James wins RUSI's Trench Gascoigne essay prize

Congratulations to Dr William James, who has won first prize in the Royal United Services Institute's Trench Gascoigne essay competition.

The award was presented by the Chief of Defence Staff, General Sir Nick Carter, as well as the new RUSI Chair Sir David Lidington. 

Will’s essay was titled: 'Between a pandemic and a hard Brexit: grand strategic thinking in age of nationalism, great power competition and human insecurity'. The essay will be published in The RUSI Journal. 

Will won second prize in the same competition in 2018 and Rob Johnson also won first prize in 2016.

"Owning the Past" opens at the Ashmolean

A new exhibition open this weekend at the Ashmolean Museum. Dr Rob Johnson was pleased to give significant input to the content of the display.

This dual language (Arabic and English) exhibition highlights the long-lasting impact of the past on the present. It explores how the borders of the state of Iraq were established following the First World War when British control of the region included a fascination with its ancient past - one that led to a colonisation of Mesopotamian antiquity as much as the living communities. It questions what is meant by heritage and introduces voices and stories of people not previously visible in displays devoted to the very histories and heritage of their homelands.

The exhibition opens with a commissioned installation by the artist Piers Secunda. His powerful artwork is created from a reproduction of the Assyrian relief of a bird-headed spirit from Nimrud, Iraq, that now dominates the Museum’s Welcome Space. It acts as a metaphor for the wider destruction of individual and community identities resulting from war, colonialism, oppressive ideologies, and neglect.

The exhibition is free but tickets for General Admission (free) must be booked in advance. Please consider including a donation to the Ashmolean when booking.

Biden time for the transatlantic relationship?

Dr William James has published a short article on the likely changes and continuities in the transatlantic relationship under President Biden.

Joe Biden’s electoral victory was initially met with relief in most European capitals but has since triggered some deeper soul-searching. French President Emmanuel Macron sparked a rather extraordinary row last week by rebuking German Defence Minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, for her critique of European strategic autonomy and defence of the US role in the continent’s security. Their public spat masks an uncomfortable truth: Europeans are unsure about the future orientation of US grand strategy. Was Donald Trump’s eventful tenure an aberration or a symptom of deeper structural issues not just in American domestic politics but also in the US-Europe relationship? The time is ripe to assess the likely changes and continuities in the transatlantic partnership under President Biden.

UNSSC reviews CCW's Changing Character of Conflict Tool

Svenja Korth, Senior Manager for Peace and Security at United Nations System Staff College, has written a blog post on the collaboration between The UNSSC and CCW. In 2015 CCW and UNSSC collaborated on the interactive Changing Character of Conflict Tool (CCCT) which analyses changes in settings of organized violence. The tool has been critical to the "Analysing and Understanding Non-state Armed groups" curriculum, and has become a regular feature in UNSSC’s peace and security training portfolio.

Rob Johnson discusses "War in Fact and Fiction" on Radio 3

Dr Rob Johnson joined a discussion on “War in Fact and Fiction” on Radio 3 on the evening of Tuesday 3 November 2020.

From East Africa to Arabia, the First World War to Mozambique, Rana Mitter discusses the impact of war on society and culture. Margaret MacMillan's most recent book is called War: How Conflict Shaped Us and takes a deep dive into the history of conflict. Rob Johnson considers what we gain by exploring the overlooked side of Lawrence of Arabia - his thoughts on warfare and military strategy. And, the end of the Gaza empire, and the clash in East Africa between Belgian, German, British and French forces are explored in novels by Mia Couto and Abdulrazak Gurnah. They compare notes about the way fiction can trace changes in relationships due to war.