Tuesday 23 April, 13.30
Hovenden Room, All Souls

Please note room change for Week 1

Some new insights into the psychology of individuals and large groups in a world of changing conflicts

Lord John Alderdice, CCW

The use of overwhelming force no longer guarantees victory in war.  Under what conditions do supposedly weaker conflict actors ‘outpower’ stronger actors?  Lord Alderdice will argue that those most willing to sustain extreme conflict have been ‘devoted actors’ driven by non-negotiable ‘sacred values’.  Bringing into dialogue insights from large group psychology, neuroscience, and epigenetics with those of political science, he will describe two factors one biological, and the other from complex large group psychology, that can help explain these apparently non-rational phenomena.

John, Lord Alderdice has an academic and professional background in medicine, psychiatry, and psychoanalysis. He was a consultant psychiatrist and Senior Lecturer at The Queen’s University of Belfast where he established the Centre for Psychotherapy with various degree courses, research work and clinical services. He also devoted himself to understanding and addressing religious fundamentalism and long-standing violent political conflict, initially in Ireland, and then in various other parts of the world. This commitment took him into politics, and he was elected Leader of Northern Ireland’s Alliance Party from 1987 to 1998, playing a significant role in the negotiation of the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. When the new Northern Ireland Assembly was elected, he became its first Speaker. In 2004 he retired from the Assembly on being appointed by the British and Irish Governments as one of the four members of the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), appointed to close down the operations of the paramilitary organizations (2003-2011) and he continued with this work on security issues when he and two colleagues were commissioned by the new Northern Ireland Government to produce a report advising them on strategy for disbanding the remaining paramilitary groups (2016).

Having been appointed to House of Lords in 1996 he was elected Convenor of the Liberal Democrats for the first four years of the Liberal/Conservative Coalition Government from 2010 to 2014. His international interests had previously led to his election as President of Liberal International, the global network of some 100 liberal political parties and organizations. He served from 2005 to 2009 and remains an active Presidente D’Honneur. He recently was elected to the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations and Defence.

He is the founding Director of the Conference on the Resolution of Intractable Conflict, based in Oxford and with colleagues in Belfast he also established the Centre for Democracy and Peace Building which continues work on the implementation of the principles of the Good Friday Agreement and takes the lessons of the Irish Peace Process to other communities in conflict. More recently he set up The Concord Foundation with a wider remit in understanding and addressing the nature of violent political conflict and its resolution. Lord Alderdice’s work has been recognized throughout the world with many fellowships, visiting professorships, honorary doctorates, and international awards. John is currently the Executive Chairman of CCW.

Seminars at 13.30, Hovenden Room, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 5 March, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

AI and Machine Learning in OSINT

Sam Pearce, Fivecast

Open Source Intelligence is coming of age, after a long time spent in the shadow of more established intelligence disciplines. It’s doing so in a period of rapid technological change, including widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence capability to enhance and augment the work of intelligence professionals.  This lecture will highlight the specific challenges for those intelligence professionals trying to derive insight from vast quantities of data – with a focus on modern social media platforms – and explain how Machine Learning and other modern technology is being harnessed for that effort.

As the Tradecraft Lead for UK and Europe, Sam helps Fivecast’s law enforcement and national security customers understand how to fuse technology with tradecraft, in order to boost the efficiency of investigators. Prior to Fivecast, Sam spent 15 years in the Australian Intelligence Community.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 27 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Book Launch: British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony

Dr William D. James, KCL and CCW

Is the United Kingdom capable of grand strategy? Common wisdom suggests otherwise. Some think it implausible amid the maelstrom of domestic politics, while others believe the UK lacks the necessary autonomy, as a cog in the US-led order.

British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony challenges these claims. Grand strategy is the highest level of national security decision-making, encompassing judgements over a state's overarching objectives and interests, as well as its security environment and resource base. Getting these decisions 'right' is vital in moments of geopolitical flux.

Employing several historical case studies between 1940-2003 and marshalling a host of primary sources, the book demonstrates that British politicians and officials have thought in grand strategic terms under American hegemony - even if they do not realise or admit to this. The book also shows that the role of allies in shaping British grand strategy has been overstated. Finally, it highlights the conditions under which domestic political actors can influence grand strategic decision-making. Written for practitioners as well as scholars, the book concludes with several policy recommendations at this inflection point in British history.

The book can be preordered here and will be on sale at the launch event. The book can be purchased at a 30% discount using the code ASFLYQ6. More information can be found here. 

Dr William D. James is a Research Fellow in the Centre for Grand Strategy at King's College London and a Senior Associate of the Oxford Changing Character of War Centre. He has previously held fellowships at MIT, Harvard, and the University of Notre Dame. William earned a DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford. Beyond his academic publishing, he writes for outlets such as War on the Rocks and Engelsberg Ideas. William has also contributed evidence to three parliamentary inquiries on British foreign policy. In 2020, he won RUSI's Trench Gascoigne Prize for original writing on defence and security.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 20 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

The Russian Challenge to Europe’s Gas Supplies this Winter and Beyond

Dr Sidharth Kaushal, RUSI

Abstract will be posted shortly.

Sidharth Kaushal's research at RUSI covers the impact of technology on maritime doctrine in the 21st century and the role of sea power in a state's grand strategy.

Sidharth holds a doctorate in International Relations from the London School of Economics, where his research examined the ways in which strategic culture shapes the contours of a nation's grand strategy.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 13 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Military Peacekeeping Mediation: A First-Hand Account from Mali

Lt. Gen. (ret.) Dr Dennis Gyllensporre, Swedish Defence University and CCW Visiting Fellow

Abstract will be posted shortly.

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Dr Dennis Gyllensporre is an Associate Professor in Security Policy and Strategy at the Swedish Defence University and an Associate Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. He also holds office as the Vice President of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences. Gyllensporre has 38 years of service in the Swedish Armed Forces. In October 2021, he completed three years of service as the Force Commander for the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). He came from a four-year appointment as the Chief of Defence Staff (VCDS in UK terminology) and Director of Special Forces of the Swedish Armed Forces. He was promoted to Lieutenant General in 2014. Gyllensporre has multifaceted credentials in international cooperation and an extensive track record in interaction with political entities. This experience spans from operations at the tactical level to scientific work in renowned journals. He was appointed the military expert to the parliamentary Defence Commission for five years. Gyllensporre has served as a staff officer in various positions, including tours abroad in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Sudan, and served as a military advisor in international crisis management at the MoD. He has also been assigned as chief of staff at the Swedish Joint Operations Command and later as head of the Doctrine and Concepts Branch at the European Union Military Staff. In 2008 he was deployed to Afghanistan as the Chief of Staff at Regional Command North of the NATO-led operation (ISAF). Subsequently, Gyllensporre has held several positions in the Swedish Armed Forces Headquarters, including Chief of Staff of the Supreme Commanders staff and Head of the Policy and Plans department. He has studied at numerous military institutions and holds several academic degrees, including a Master of Science in Computer Science (Royal National Institute of Technology, Sweden), Master of Business Administration (Warwick University, United Kingdom), Master of Military Arts and Science (USA Army Command and General Staff College), as well as a PhD in Policy Analysis and Governance (Maastricht University, the Netherlands). He is the author of several books and academic articles on military strategy and security studies.

He is a recipient of the Swedish Armed Forces Medal of Merit in gold for distinguished leadership during combat and war-like situations, the French Ordre national de la Légion d'honneur, the Chevalier de l'Ordre national du Mali, and the Dwight D. Eisenhower Award (2001) for academic achievements at U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. He was selected as the ‘Leader of Change 2022’ in Sweden for successful work as an adaptation manager. Gyllensporre is inaugurated to the Hall of Fame at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College (2017) and the U.S. National Defense University (2022).

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 6 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Defence-Economic Aspects of the War in Ukraine: Russia War Economy, Economic Warfare, and Economic Costs

Professor Christopher Davis, Oxford Institute of Population Aging

The evolution and outcomes of the armed conflicts in Ukraine over the period 2014-2024 have been strongly influenced by ideological, political, and military factors. However, defence-economic developments in Russia, Ukraine, countries of the Anti-Russia Coalition (ARC), and other nations have become increasingly important since February 2022 because Russia’s ‘limited military operation’ has evolved into a major resource-intensive and attritional war that has required mobilisations of military personnel and of defence industry in the direct adversary countries and provision of large-scale military and financial support to Ukraine by the ARC. This talk will use concepts and empirical material to answer key questions concerning Russia’s economy and defence-industrial complex (DIC) and economic issues related the war in Ukraine during 20222-24. The key concepts are: (1) the Russian economic system (war economy) and the production of economic power, (2) priority protection mechanisms in the war economy, (3) the defence industrial complex and the generation of military power, (4) global and regional economic-military power balances, (5) relations between Russia and other countries (adversary, neutral, partner) and their economic impacts, (6) economic sanctions/warfare and countermeasures, and (7) economic costs of war to Russia, Ukraine, the ARC, and non-engaged countries (China, Global South).

Relevant Publications:

• Davis, C. (2024, Forthcoming) Defence-Economic Aspects of Russia’s Involvement in the War in Ukraine: Economic Systems, Defence Industrial Complexes, International Economic Relationships, Economic Warfare, and Economic Costs, Submitted to journal for review in January 2024.

• Davis, C. (2020, January) The Russian Defence Industry, 1980-2025: Systemic Change, Policies, Performance, and Prospects, Chapter in Keith Hartley (UK) and Jean Belin (France) The Economics of the Global Defence Industry (69-125), Taylor and France. ISBN: 978-1-138-60809-2
  [A pdf copy can be obtained from CCW upon individual request.]

• Davis, C. (2016) The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances, and Economic Sanctions, Post-Communist Economies, Open Access at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14631377.2016.1139301

• Davis, C. (2002) The Defence Sector in the Economy of a Declining Superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2000, Defence and Peace Economics, 13: 3, 145-177

Christopher Davis is an academic expert on the economies of Russia and East Europe, whose research has focused on the USSR/Russia and the topics of economics of health, demography (mortality trends, population ageing), industry, and defence economics. He obtained a B.A. in Applied Mathematics at Harvard University (1969) and a Ph.D. in Economics in 1980 at Cambridge University for a dissertation on The Economics of Health in the USSR. He has held tenured academic positions at the University of Birmingham (Centre for Russian and East European Studies, 1978-1991) and the University of Oxford (Economics and Area Studies/REES, 1991-2015). At present he is a Professorial Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing. He has made over 50 academic research visits to the USSR and Russia during 1974-2020, including to Moscow State University as a doctoral student on the USA-USSR exchange for the 1976-77 academic year.

In the military/defence field, Christopher studied at Harvard on an NROTC scholarship and served as an officer in the US Navy during 1969-73, reaching the rank of Lieutenant. He commenced his academic research on defence economics in 1985 following an eight-month Ford Foundation Post-Doctoral Fellowship in National Security and Arms Control at MIT. He has produced over fifteen publications about the economics of defence in the USSR/Russia, including those shown below. Over the past six months he organized a large conference about the economics of the war in Ukraine, which was held at Wolfson College in December 2023.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 30 January, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

How Worlds Collapse: What History, Systems, and Complexity can Teach Us About Our Modern World and Fragile Nature

Paul Larcey, Princeton University

As our society confronts the impacts of globalization and global systemic risks—such as financial contagion, climate change, and epidemics—what can studies of the past tell us about our present and future? How Worlds Collapse offers case studies of societies that either collapsed or overcame cataclysmic adversity. The authors in this volume find commonalities between past civilizations and our current society, tracing patterns, strategies, and early warning signs that can inform decision-making today. While today’s world presents unique challenges, many mechanisms, dynamics, and fundamental challenges to the foundations of civilization have been consistent throughout history—highlighting essential lessons for the future.

Paul A. Larcey is co-director of the PIIRS Global Systemic Risk research community at Princeton University. Larcey’s work with the UK’s innovation agency focuses on key emerging technologies including life sciences, quantum technologies, and AI. He has worked in corporate research, venture capital, and global industrial sectors at board and senior levels and studied engineering, materials science, and finance at London, Oxford, and Cambridge Universities.

You can buy ‘How Worlds Collapse: What History, Systems, and Complexity Can Teach Us About Our Modern World and Fragile Future’ here: https://www.routledge.com/How-Worlds-Collapse-What-History-Systems-and-Complexity-Can-Teach-Us/Centeno-Callahan-Larcey-Patterson/p/book/9781032363219 

 GSR also developed a MOOC (Massive Open Online Course) on global systemic risk, which can be found here: https://www.coursera.org/learn/global-systemic-risk? 

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 23 January, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

(Re)shaping Ukrainian Identity Through Linguistic Choices During the Full-Scale Russo-Ukrainian War

Dr Iryna Halasa, West Ukrainian National University and KCL

Linguistic implications form vital insights for understanding the nature of war discourse. They also demonstrate ways in which language is manipulated in order to achieve definite goals.

The researcher will interpret President Zelenskyy’s Independence Day speech presented on August 24, 2023. It is analyzed from the perspective of critical discourse analysis. The research questions are: What function, if any, does the speech of Volodymyr Zelenskyi have on the Ukrainian audience? And what linguistic means, if any, does the Ukrainian President deliberately use to achieve his goals while interacting with the Ukrainians?

Taking into account V.Zelenskyy’s former career, discourse has always been an important tool to influence and manipulate the audience. Kvartal 95 humor, sarcasm and satire were the key means to reach the recipients before his presidential ambitions. And his political speeches in the role of the President became the main source of information and support to the Ukrainians during the full-scale invasion of Russia to Ukraine. In this study we make an attempt to demonstrate four main functions of the President’s speeches to the nation during Russo-Ukrainian war which include unifying, supportive/encouraging, sympathetic, and glorious functions. We also interpret his Independence Day speech from the perspective of personal pronouns usage. 

Iryna Halasa, PhD, Associate Professor at West Ukrainian National University, Ternopil, Ukraine. She is currently holding the British Academy Researchers at Risk Award and working on her research project as a visiting scholar at King’s College London, UK. She obtained her PhD from Ivan Franko National University of L’viv in 2011. Her professional development is confirmed by numerous internships in such countries as the USA, the UK, Sweden, Hungary, Poland and others. Harvard University scholarship represents one of the most important achievements of the researcher. Iryna Halasa’s research interests include peculiarities of political discourse functioning and Russo-Ukrainian war vocabulary interpretation.  

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 16 January 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Welding Alliances: How Allied Warship Production Could Transform the Indo-Pacific

Cdr. Doug Robb

U.S. Navy surface ships are deployed around the world in strategically important waters.  Their presence matters in the increasingly complex maritime domain and yet, despite unprecedented congressional support for shipbuilding, the U.S. defence industrial base cannot keep up with demand.  At the same time, the U.S. is exploring new ways to deepen cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific to strengthen regional collective security and deter potential conflict.  A collaborative warship construction program may succeed in achieving those aims.

Commander Douglas Robb is the Academic Year 2023-2024 U.S. Navy Hudson Fellow at St. Antony’s College and a visiting research fellow in the Changing Character of War Centre at Pembroke College.  His operational assignments have been in Pacific fleet-based guided missile destroyers, culminating most recently as commanding officer of USS Spruance (DDG 111), homeported in San Diego, California.  His staff assignments in Washington, DC include liaison to the U.S. House of Representatives in the Navy’s Office of Legislative Affairs; Tomahawk Missile and Surface Strike section head in the Navy Staff’s Surface Warfare Division (OPNAV N96); and speechwriter for the Navy’s four-star uniformed leader, the Chief of Naval Operations. Current research interests include ways to strengthen naval power, including how allied capabilities may be used to overcome domestic constraints.    

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 28 November, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Cyber capacity and strategic advantage: resilience, influence, and control

Julia Carver, Oxford

Julia Carver is a DPhil candidate in International Relations at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College. Her work explores cyber-foreign policymaking and strategic thinking in the current era of great power competition, particularly the relationship between digital infrastructure, capacity building, and strategic advantage. In 2021, she founded the Changing Character of War Centre’s Cyber Strategy and Information Operations Working Group, and she currently holds a stipendiary lectureship in Politics at Magdalen College (Oxford). Her research is jointly funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and Nuffield College.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 21 November, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Cyber Deception

Rob Black, Wilton Park & Cranfield University

It is necessary to consider how the virtual age has changed the battleground for all of us, how the virtual domain and cyberspace can shape our understanding of what is happening and, resultantly, our behaviours, whoever we are. In recognising this, we can appreciate that a new way of defending our networks is required, where we move away from a passive assurance mindset, but instead look to ‘fight’ our cyber attackers with the only means we have in the Virtual Domain – We need to encourage more consideration of human sciences and an improved applied understanding of our target’s decision making so as to offer actionable insight to help deploy more effective cyber defence tactics as a force multiplier to the technological solutions currently being offered by vendors and utilised in cyber defence. Adopting a proactive cyber defence strategy which is focused on the behaviour and decision making components of our attackers and not just the technical capabilities becomes key.

The lecture will explore why cyberspace is different, and how humans can be exploited through cyberspace, what does this mean for how we operate in cyberspace and, more importantly, it will showcase why it is necessary to move on from a detection focused defence strategy to a proactive cyber defence strategy which has Deception at the heart of it. It will finish with a few novel suggestions of how we might take the ‘fight’ to the cyber attacker inside our networks.

Rob Black has worked in the field of Influence and Information Operations since 2003. As a Lecturer in Information Activities at Cranfield University, he leads a series of modules on the UK MoD’s MSc in Cyberspace Operations, as well as supporting the UK Defence Cyber School in educating senior MoD Leaders about Warfare in the Information Age. Rob is currently an Associate Programme Director at Wilton Park, where he helps enable policy shaping dialogue on issues at the heart of the UK government's interests. His current programme focuses on defence and national security, cyber, intelligence and warfare.

Formerly he was the Deputy Director of the National Cyber Deception Laboratory and previously Rob was responsible for building and developing Cyber Influence Capabilities for the UK MoD and was involved in operational planning and delivery of cyber operations in support of the UK government’s and her international partners cyber operations. Rob studied Law and a Masters in International Peace and Security (International Law and International Relations at Kings College London.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 14 November, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Economics and National Security

Dr Jason Shepherd

There is a resurgence in interest in economic statecraft and economic security. This is against a backdrop in which, over the last thirty or so years, economics has been regarded as above and beyond national control and best left untouched by governments; and national security has been lionised for its performance and practice, rather than its impact. What are the connections between the economy and national security, and how might we begin to raise a new generation of security practitioners with the skills to operate in this re-emerging field?

Dr Jason Shepherd is the Senior Director for Strategy at Thomson Reuters Special Services International. He joined Thomson Reuters in 2021 after a twenty-three-year career in the UK national security community, during which he contributed to interoperability both between the FVEY partners and the UK agencies and government departments.

A graduate of Cambridge, his PhD in Molecular Genetics was awarded by the University of Edinburgh, but it was his experience of the Executive Master’s in Public Policy at LSE that convinced him of the importance of the economy and political institutions to national security. An influential member of the 2020 Integrated Review team, he continues to champion technical innovation and excellence in the pursuit of public good, and is a proponent of public-private partnership in security and intelligence. He is an advocate, and whenever possible practitioner, of systems thinking and systems engineering.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 7 November, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

The Pendulum of War: Lanchester Models of Combat

Dr Stephen Coulson

This session examines the use of Lanchester’s equations for combat modelling. Originally conceived by the aeronautical and automotive engineer Dr Frederick W. Lanchester in 1914, prior to the outbreak of the First World War, to predict the outcome of arial combat, the power laws Lanchester derived from his equations have been widely used to understand the dynamics of many different types of combat. The session reviews Lanchester’s equations and how they became fundamental to the development of military operational research by both the UK and the US during the Second World War. The continued relevance of Lanchester models to understand combat on the modern battlefield is shown through some insights into current research using Lanchester’s approach, which suggest that metaphors of the pendulum of war may actually rest on a mathematical foundation.   

 Stephen has been a Research Fellow at CCW since 2016. Originally a Visiting Fellow, sponsored by the Land Intelligence Fusion Centre (LIFC) studying the value of intelligence to decision makers, his research has broadened to include combat modelling, wargaming and high-level tactical warfare. Previously a diplomat with the Foreign Office and the Operations Research Director for a UK defence company, Stephen has applied mathematical modelling to numerous real-world problems.        

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 31 October, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building

When Does the Great Game End? Long Term Geostrategic Trajectories of the Russian War Against Ukraine

Dr Rob Johnson

This session examines the future direction of the Russian invasion of Ukraine from a strategic point of view. It draws on conceptual tools to understand the character of this conflict but also ways to analyse future challenges and geostrategic consequences. The session makes use of history, concepts, and strategic analysis techniques. It is does not concentrate on the tactical analyses which currently dominate the media and defence analytical community, but instead focusses on the global reactions over the longer term and offer context to current and likely future trajectories. The session will offer some insight into the UK's leading role in its support for Ukraine and the 'inside view' of the UK government. 

Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of the newly established Secretary of State’s Office of Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC) at the Ministry of Defence.  He will return as Director of the Oxford Changing Character of War Centre in 2024.  He has advised and delivered direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters, including the United States, Europe and Australia.

Seminars at 13.00, Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 24 October, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building

Limited capacity - Now fully booked

Understanding Territorial Withdrawal: Israeli Occupations and Exits

Dr Rob Geist Pinfold, Durham University

From Ukraine to Afghanistan and beyond, occupations and exit dilemmas permeate contemporary geopolitics. However, the existing literature on territorial conflict rarely scrutinizes a pivotal, related question: what makes a state withdraw from an occupied territory, or entrench itself within it?
In Understanding Territorial Withdrawal, Rob Geist Pinfold addresses this research gap. He focuses primarily on Israel, a unique but important milieu that offers pertinent lessons for other states facing similar policy problems. As Pinfold demonstrates, occupiers choose to either perpetuate or abandon an occupation because of three factors: their relations with the occupied, interactions with third parties, and the occupier's domestic politics. He argues that each withdrawal is the culmination of a gradual process of policy re-assessment. Critically, it is a combination of local violence and international pressure that causes popular and elite opinion within the occupier to endorse an exit, rather than perpetuate the status quo. To affirm this pattern, Pinfold constructs a generalizable framework for understanding territorial withdrawal. He then applies this framework to multiple case studies, which include: Israel's withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula between 1974-1982; its "unilateral" withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000; and its "unilateral disengagement" from the Gaza Strip in 2005, as well as Israel's non-withdrawals from the West Bank and Golan Heights. Overall, Understanding Territorial Withdrawal delineates commonalities that manifested in each exit yet were absent in the cases of occupation without exit.

Dr Rob Geist Pinfold is a Lecturer in International Peace and Security at Durham University’s School of Government and International Affairs. Alongside his role at Durham, he is a Research Fellow at the Peace Research Center Prague and Kings College London’s Centre for Grand Strategy and is a Senior Fellow at Charles University's Herzl Center for Israel Studies. Rob is a scholar of international security whose research intersects the study of strategy and territorial conflict. His work has been published in International Studies Perspectives, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism and Mediterranean Politics. His full-length book manuscript, Understanding Territorial Withdrawal: Israeli Occupations and Exits, was published by Oxford University Press in 2023. 

Seminars at 13.00, Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 17 October, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building

Thanks for your Service:  The Causes & Consequences of Public Confidence in the US Military 

Professor Peter Feaver, Duke University

What explains the high levels of public confidence in the US military and does high confidence matter? In Thanks for Your Service, the eminent civil-military relations scholar Peter D. Feaver addresses this question and focuses on what it means for the military. Proprietary survey data show that confidence is partly based on public beliefs about the military's high competence, adherence to high professional ethics, and a determination to stand apart from the bitter divisions of partisan politics. However, as Feaver argues, confidence is also shaped by a partisan gap and by social desirability bias, the idea that some individuals express confidence in the military because they believe that is the socially approved attitude to hold. Not only does Feaver help us understand how and why the public has confidence in the military, but he also exposes problems that policymakers need to be aware of. Specifically, this book traces how confidence in the institution shapes public attitudes on the use of force and may not always reinforce best practices in democratic civil-military relations.

Peter D. Feaver is a Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Duke University. He is Director of the Duke Program in American Grand Strategy and co-PI of the America in the World Consortium. Feaver is also the author of Armed Servants: Agency, Oversight, and Civil-Military Relations (2003) and Guarding the Guardians: Civilian Control of Nuclear Weapons in the United States (1992). He is co-author of Paying the Human Costs of War (with Christopher Gelpi and Jason Reifler, 2009); Getting the Best Out of College (with Susan Wasiolek and Anne Crossman, 2008, 2nd edition 2012); and Choosing Your Battles: American Civil-Military Relations and the Use of Force (with Christopher Gelpi, 2004). He has published numerous other monographs, scholarly articles, book chapters, and policy pieces on grand strategy, American foreign policy, public opinion, nuclear proliferation, civil-military relations, and cybersecurity. Feaver served on the NSC staff in both the Clinton (as a Director for Defense Policy and Arms Control, 1993-1994) and Bush (as Special Advisor for Strategic Planning and Institutional Reform, 2005-2007) administrations. He is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group.

Seminars at 13.00, Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 10 October, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building

Contemporary Mental Health and Illness in the UKAF

Surg. Cdr. Charlotte Evans, CCW & Royal Navy

Mental health is a ‘hot topic’ for the UK Armed Forces and country it serves. There is concern over the effect of service on military personnel and misunderstanding about the realities of mental health and mental illness and its’ treatment. Both the realities and the ‘rumour’ have impact on the UKAF at a variety of levels – tactical, operational and strategic. What are these impacts and what is being done to mitigate them now and if the Cognitive domain is the next theatre of warfare, what might we need to know, re-learn and innovate? 

Surgeon Commander Charlotte Evans is the Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Research Fellow with CCW. Until recently she was the Consultant Advisor in Psychiatry to the Head of Royal Navy Healthcare. She was assigned to deliver subject matter expertise in her clinical role as a consultant psychiatrist, alongside non-clinical support and advice on the wider aspects of mental health and illness through strategic, operational and tactical levels. She has delivered particular emphasis on provision of support in the maritime operational space, and training personnel to support good mental health in their people to enhance operational capability. 

Early career highlights have included operational deployments as a General Duties Medical Officer on RFA LARGS BAY and HMS MONTROSE and RICHMOND, predominantly conducting disaster relief planning and training, and counter-piracy activity off the East coast of Africa. She has also conducted deployed mental health research and completed her MSc in Evidence Based Healthcare through the University of Oxford alongside her clinical training. Her dissertation focussed on the occupational outcomes for military mental health patients.

Current research interests: the role of mental health in the moral component of warfighting, whether traditional understanding of military operational mental health delivery meets current demands, and what psychiatry may have to offer in defence against cognitive warfare.

Seminars at 13.00, Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 13 June, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Black Swans: do we have the culture (and will) to adapt rapidly to unforeseen and potentially catastrophic events?

Dr Kevin Rowlands

In 2012 the MoD Developments, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) produced a concept note entitled Black Swan.  It proposed a different approach to 21st century naval warfare involving crewed and uncrewed vessels acting together as an integrated system.  It seems prescient now, even mainstream, but a decade ago the concept did not fit with the existing narrative and fell on deaf ears, ultimately falling victim to a concerted campaign to undermine its validity.  How many more Black Swans have been ignored or buried over the years, and are we today more able to broaden our thinking, take challenging, bold ideas and run with them?  Or will vested interests always win the day?

Dr Kevin Rowlands is the Head of the Royal Navy’s Strategic Studies Centre, an internal Ministry of Defence think tank which aims to inform senior policy and strategy decision makers. He enjoyed a thirty-year naval career, of which twenty were at sea, and left in the rank of Captain. He has been the Secretary to the Chiefs of Staff Committee and other senior Ministry of Defence boards and committees, and was the Course Director for the United Kingdom’s Advanced Command and Staff Course. Kevin holds a PhD in War Studies from King’s College, London, and master’s degrees in defence studies and in education.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 6 June, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

North Korea and the Global Nuclear Order: When Bad Behaviour Pays

Dr Edward Howell, Oxford

For a state that has gained a global reputation as a violator of international norms, not least through its unwavering pursuit of nuclear weapons, North Korea's determination to become a nuclear-armed state is puzzling. If nuclear weapons beget security, insecurity, and other costs for the state, how might we understand this pursuit, and the delinquent behaviour that has arisen from it? In North Korea and the Global Nuclear Order, Edward Howell offers an answer to this question, focusing on North Korea's quest for status in the international system and developing the theoretical framework of 'strategic delinquency'. Featuring previously unpublished and new interviews with international negotiators with North Korea, and drawing upon new academic literature, Howell proffers an original theoretical framework to apply to the North Korean case. Covering a time period from the 1990s to the present-day, and using unprecedentedly rich empirical evidence, he makes the overarching argument that North Korea has strategically deployed behaviour that breaks international norms in order to reap benefits. In so doing, this book posits how over time, North Korea has learnt that despite the low status and opprobrium that might ensue, bad behaviour can pay.

Edward Howell is a lecturer in Politics at New College, University of Oxford. His research concerns the international relations of East Asia, with a focus on the Korean Peninsula. He has been a contributing writer for the Economist Intelligence Unit, a Korea Foundation-Next Generation Policy Fellow at Chatham House, London, and an Emerging Leaders Fellow of the Ministry of Unification of the Republic of Korea. Edward also offers extensive media analysis on the international relations of East Asia, including for The Spectator, the Daily Telegraph, and BBC World News.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 30 May, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Support the Troops: Military Obligation, Gender, and the Making of Political Community

Dr Katharine Millar, LSE

Dr Millar will discuss her newly published book, which is the first book to systematically examine "supporting the troops" as a distinct phenomenon both in general, and as specifically manifest in the US and UK from 2001-2010, during the first decade of the war on terror. She takes a feminist reading on liberalism (and social contract theory in particular), to look at how gendered, masculinised obligations to commit and/or support collective violence are important to a) making liberal wars possible and b) creating political community. Empirically, the book argues that "support" for the military, in an era of professionalised armed forces and often distant wars, has supplanted military service as the hallmark of "good" gendered citizenship. Theoretically, it argues for the importance of loyalty and solidarity in making liberal violence.

Dr Katharine Millar is an Assistant Professor of International Relations in the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics. Her broad research interests lie in examining the gendered cultural narratives underlying the modern collective use of force. 

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 23 May, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Raising McCAIN: Challenges and Opportunities in Returning a “Mishap Ship” to Warfighting Readiness

Captain Ryan Easterday, CCW and US Navy

On 21 August 2017, the U.S. Navy warship USS JOHN S. McCAIN suffered a collision in the Singapore strait that killed ten sailors, caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and took the destroyer out of service for three years. This was the second fatal collision involving a U.S. Navy ship that summer, and it sparked a large-scale reevaluation of readiness throughout the Navy, particularly in the surface force. Against this background of institutional introspection and debate, the officers and crew of USS JOHN S. McCAIN laboured to rebuild their ship, mourn their losses, address their trauma, and reassemble a team to take the ship back to sea and “back into the fight.”

Joining the ship’s company in late 2017, Captain Ryan Easterday served as Executive Officer and then Commanding Officer of USS JOHN S. McCAIN until February 2021. In these roles he was deeply involved in restoring “Big Bad John” (as the ship is colloquially known by its crew) from a “mishap ship” back to full warfighting readiness. He will discuss his experiences of the challenges and opportunities involved in repairing and remanning the ship, addressing collective trauma, preparing the crew for the rigors of deployment, and finally taking ship and crew back out on operations throughout the Indo-Pacific.

Biography: As a junior officer, he participated in humanitarian relief operations in Indonesia following the 2004 South Asian tsunami, and counter-terrorism operations in the Philippines, as well as blue water operations throughout the Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and Arabian Gulf.

While commanding USS SIROCCO (PC 6) he conducted the first homeport shift of a Patrol Coastal crew from the United States to the Kingdom of Bahrain. As executive officer and later as commanding officer of USS JOHN S. McCAIN (DDG 56) from 2018 to 2021, he spent three years returning the ship to full warfighting readiness in the aftermath of a tragic collision at sea, culminating in a highly successful deployment that saw the ship operating throughout the Indo-Pacific, from Vishakhapatnam to Vladivostok and (nearly) everywhere in between.

As the Director of the USS RONALD REAGAN Strike Group’s Maritime Operations Center, he deployed in support of the Afghan withdrawal and Kabul evacuation, as well as operations in the Indo-Pacific– including multiple at-sea engagements with the HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH Carrier Strike Group. Ashore, he has been stationed in the UK and in Germany, supporting multinational naval operations in the North Atlantic and special operations forces in North and West Africa.

Ryan holds a BS in History from the United States Naval Academy and an MA in Defence Studies from Kings College London, which he earned while attending the United Kingdom’s Joint Services Command and Staff College. His research interests are varied and include ethics, organizational behavior, deterrence, nuclear strategy, risk assessment and management, the impact of climate change on security, and civilizational resilience.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 16 May, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Disinformation and hybrid threats – the Singapore perspective

Dr Shashi Jayakumar, S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

This is part of the Balliol College Oliver Smithies Visiting Lecturer Seminar Series.

A great deal of the discourse concerning “disinformation” or “foreign interference” has focused – with some justification – on countries in the West. However, nations in Southeast Asia have increasingly in recent years had to grapple with these threats. The more wired and connected the country, the greater the threat surface. Nations like Singapore, which traditionally have prided themselves on diversity and cosmopolitanism, have also had to come to terms with the fact that these attributes can also be turned against the state by  actors seeking for their own reasons to undermine the body politic (to seed their own narratives, or to make civilisational calls to one particular demographic, for example). This talk tackles some of these challenges that Singapore faces, along with what is being done to counter these threats.

Dr Shashi Jayakumar is Head of the Centre of Excellence for National Security, and Executive Coordinator of Future Issues and Technology at RSIS.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 9 May, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

From Integrated Deterrence to Integrated Defense 

Antulio Echevarria, CCW and US Army War College

This presentation is an in-progress update of a research effort aimed at improving the US Defense Department’s concept of Integrated Deterrence.  It discusses some of the concept’s difficulties as brought to light by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  It offers some potential remedies as well.

Professor Antulio J. Echevarria II is the General MacArthur Chair of Research at the US Army War College and a Visiting Research Fellow at Oxford University’s Changing Character of War Program.  He holds a doctorate in modern history from Princeton University and has authored six books on military history and strategic thinking: War’s Logic: Strategic Thought and the American Way of War (Cambridge 2021), Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford 2017), Imagining Future War (2007), Clausewitz and Contemporary War (Oxford 2007), Reconsidering the American Way of War (Georgetown 2014), and After Clausewitz (Kansas 2001).  He is a graduate of the US Military Academy, the US Army Command and General Staff College, and the US Army War College.  He also completed a NATO Fulbright Fellowship (2000-01), a Visiting Research Fellowship in Oxford (2011-12), a Senior Research Fellowship at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (2017-2019), an Adjunct Research Fellowship at the Modern War Institute at West Point (2018-2019), and formerly held the USAWC Elihu Root Chair of Military Studies (2013-16).  He normally serves as the Editor-in-Chief of the US Army War College Press, which includes the US Army’s strategy journal Parameters.   

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 2 May, 13.30. Sandwiches served from 13.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Please note the later start time.

The Contribution of (Military) Psychology to the Operational Readiness of the Swiss Armed Forces

Professor Hubert Annen, CCW & Swiss Military Academy

The current war in Ukraine impressively demonstrates the significant role played by human factors such as morale, flexibility, resilience, and leadership. Given this, the Swiss Armed Forces, which have no direct experience of warlike operations, must ask themselves what needs to be done to establish a solid basis in these areas. Military psychology plays a vital role in ensuring that military personnel is mentally and emotionally prepared for the demands and stress of combat operations. This is achieved through various interventions, including psychological assessments, resilience-building programs, and leadership training. The presentation will highlight concrete approaches as well as their scientific evaluation. Furthermore, the specific challenges of implementing scientific findings in an explicitly practice-oriented setting will be discussed.

Hubert Annen is currently a Visiting Research Fellow at CCW. He is the head of Military Psychology and Pedagogy Studies at Military Academy/ETH Zurich and the head of the Swiss Army assessment centers for prospective Defense Attachés, General Staff Officers, and Professional Officers and NCOs respectively. Parallel to his professional career, he is also still active as a reserve officer in the Swiss Armed Forces with the rank of colonel. From 2016 to 2022 Hubert Annen served as the chair of the management board of the International Military Testing Association (IMTA).

His research interests include the evaluation and validation of assessment and selection procedures for military leaders, motivational aspects in the military context, military education, military values and virtues, and the trainability and measurability of individual resilience. From a more strategic perspective, he would like to focus more on the general added value of psychological knowledge for military training and operations and derive recommendations for military leaders.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 7 March, 13.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

NATO's Nordic Neophytes: How Sweden & Finland's Accession to NATO Alters the Military Balance in Northeast Europe

Julia Carver & Sam Seitz (Oxford)

Does the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO alter the strategic balance in the Baltics? Stockholm and Helsinki’s recent decision to join the alliance has rendered most analyses on this question moot, as extant scholarship has focused on how the two countries could cooperate with NATO outside the alliance. To redress this gap, this paper assesses how Nordic NATO expansion shifts the military balance in northeast Europe by leveraging a mixed-methods approach of campaign models and elite interviews. Our campaign analyses suggest the addition of Sweden and Finland expands NATO force projection capabilities while simultaneously increasing the strain on Russia’s regional air defense network. Interviews allow us to corroborate these findings against the strategic assessments of key NATO and European policymakers, and to probe the extent to which their strategic judgements mirror popular discourse around NATO expansion. Our findings have critical policy and academic implications, suggesting that Swedish and Finnish accession strengthen NATO’s ability to reinforce the Baltics. Consequently, Nordic expansion is expected to reduce the odds of a Russian fait accompli in the region—thereby strengthening deterrence.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 21 February, 13.00

Venue change: Harold Lee Room. Pembroke College

The follower map: Towards a theory of the roots of cultural variations in leadership ideals

 Prof. Mark van Vugt (Vrije Universiteit)
Dr. Sirio Lonati (Neoma Business School)

Three decades of research have documented substantial cross-cultural variation in the ideal attributes and behaviors that followers expect from their leaders in the domain of politics, business, sports and religion. In the East, employees tend to describe their ideal managers as more paternalistic and authoritarian than in the West, for instance. Furthermore, whereas only 5% of respondents in Sweden believe that men make better political leaders than women, in Egypt this is more than 80% (World Values Survey, 2022). From an evolutionary perspective, this variation seems puzzling because leadership ideals are thought to be regulated by universally shared adaptive followership mechanisms shaped by natural selection (Van Vugt, Hogan & Kaiser, 2008). I will argue that evolutionary and cultural approaches to leadership are not at odds but have something in common:  An emphasis on the role of socio-ecological factors (e.g., climatic changes, resource crises, disease threats, demographic shifts, war-peace) in shaping culturally shared ideals of leadership. In the talk, I will introduce a novel evolutionary-ecological theory of leadership ideals which can makes several new contributions to the literature. First, I will review some key socio-ecological factors that might shape why and how leadership ideals vary across societies. Second, I will introduce two mechanisms through which ecology can affect leadership ideals, via (1) evoked and (2) transmitted culture. Third, I will discuss how an ecological framework advances new research questions and predictions related to changes in societally shared leadership ideals, enlarging the empirical toolbox available to leadership scholars. Together, these contributions provide a novel way of thinking about differences in leadership ideals across nations, regions, and organizations, offering various implications for leadership and followership theory and practice. 

All are welcome, no need to book. Due to the venue change, there will be no sandwiches this week.

Tuesday 7 February, 13.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Evolution of far-right extremist ideologies  (tbc)

Prof. Peter Neumann (Kings College London)

What is the Far Right today, and what threat does it pose? Instead of Hitler’s Third Reich, today’s activists more often speak of ‘The Great Replacement’. And rather than marching down the streets, they frequently meet on online platforms or in conference rooms. Yet, most of the public still thinks of the Far Right as fascists, Nazis or Skinheads. To what extent has this portrayal become outdated, and what does it need to be replaced by? The lecture will try to answer this question based on the Far Right’s ideological evolution. It will outline key turning points, highlight recent developments, and conclude that, while there is an ideational essence that has remained unchanged, societal and technological changes have caused the far-right to become more diverse and less predictable.

Peter Neumann is Professor of Security Studies at the Department of War Studies, and founded the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), which he directed between 2008 and 2018. In 2017, he also served as the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Special Representatives on Countering Violent Extremism.

Neumann has authored or co-authored seven books, most recently Bluster: Donald Trump’s War on Terror (Hurst and Oxford University Press, 2020). Previous books include Radicalized: New Jihadists and the Threat to the West (IB Tauris, 2016), Old and New Terrorism (Polity Press, 2009), The Strategy of Terrorism (with MLR Smith) (Routledge, 2008), and Britain’s Long War: British Strategy in the Northern Ireland Conflict, 1969-98 (Palgrave Macmillan, 2003).

Neumann holds an MA in Political Science from the Free University of Berlin, and a PhD in War Studies from King’s College London. Before becoming an academic, he worked as a radio journalist in Germany.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.
Sandwiches served at 12.40

Tuesday 24 January, 13.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

The Difficulty of Innovation in Defence

Oliver Lewis & Bob Daigle

Oliver Lewis is the Co-founder of Rebellion Defense, a British-American defence software 'unicorn' startup which builds mission-focused software for the defense and security of the United States, the United Kingdom, and our allies. Oliver was deputy director of the U.K. Government Digital Service, leading teams that worked to implement emerging multisector technologies across government. Oliver built the public-sector business at Improbable, a billion-dollar startup that applies groundbreaking cloud computing simulation to government. Early in his career, he was a U.K. Ministry of Defence intelligence officer, policy advisor, and strategy advisor, with two deployments to Afghanistan.

Oliver is a research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Changing Character of War Centre, a senior visiting fellow at the University of Southern California, and general editor of Routledge’s ‘Advances in Defence Studies

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.
Sandwiches served at 12.40.

Tuesday 22 November, 13.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Provocative presence: Strategic ambiguity and naval options in a restive world

Captain Brent Spillner, US Navy

This talk will explore the peacetime uses and caveats of naval power as a channel for diplomatic signaling or to shape competitors' options, with particular attention to the deepening tensions in East Asia, and the ways in which Taiwan's security situation may evolve in response to new technologies and lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

Captain Spillner holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in computer science from the University of Illinois, with a research focus on real-time expert systems and high-reliability distributed computing, and a master’s degree in political science from the University of Amsterdam, with a specialization in political theory and behavior and a research focus on emerging democracies and armed conflict.  He was commissioned as a submarine officer in 1999 via the Naval Reserve Officer Training Corps program.  He served as a junior officer aboard USS OHIO (SSBN/SSGN 726), and then as Navigator/Operations Officer on USS HAMPTON (SSN 767), Executive Officer on USS ALBUQUERQUE (SSN 706), and as Commanding Officer of USS SPRINGFIELD (SSN 761) and USS GREENEVILLE (SSN 772).  He has made four Western Pacific deployments.

Ashore, CAPT Spillner has served as an Olmsted Scholar in the Netherlands, Assistant Nuclear Officer Program Manager on the Navy Staff in Arlington, Virginia, Protocol Branch Head for the NATO Allied Joint Forces Command in Naples, Italy, and Combat Readiness Evaluation Team Senior Member on the staff of Commander Submarine Force, U.S. Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 8 November, 13.00
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Know your enemy: Empathy and imagination in strategy

Professor Kenneth Payne, KCL

Everyone knows that Sun Tzu urged strategists to 'know your enemy and know yourself'. Easily said, but far harder to do. In my new book, I'll be exploring the role of metacognition in strategy - unpicking our uniquely human ability to reflect on our own mind, and those of others. We have evolved a powerful, sometimes instinctive, sometimes deliberative model of reality, including the various agents we encounter in it. We use that model to imagine possible futures. Understanding that others can have different, and possibly false, beliefs is the basis of deception and of strategy. So far, there are three cases in the book - including JFK's effort to understand Khrushchev, and Western efforts to anticipate Putin's intentions ahead of his Ukraine invasion. And there's a discussion of the possibility of artificial minds developing human-like empathy.

Professor Kenneth Payne’s research is in political psychology and strategic studies. His latest book, I, Warbot, considers the ways in which Artificial Intelligence will change strategy. It was chosen as a book of the year by The Economist newspaper and by leading IR journal International Affairs. Earlier books explored the evolution of strategy from apes and early humans to Artificial Intelligence; strategy in the Vietnam War, and the relationship between human evolution and modern, liberal warfare. Professor Payne has consulted for the governments of the United Kingdom and United States. He’s appeared before Parliamentary committees in the UK and Netherlands. He’s been a NATO research fellow and visiting fellow at Oxford University. His Twitter account is @kennethpayne01

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.